不确定环境论文：不确定环境下供应链多时段生产计划问题研究_不确定环境下公司战略

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不确定环境论文：不确定环境下供应链多时段生产计划问题研究

【中文摘要】随着全球经济一体化和市场全球化的日趋形成,企业问的竞争已发展成为企业供应链间的竞争。企业处于动态的社会经济环境之中,多种不确定经济因素对于企业供应链的构建和运作影响极大。研究不确定环境下,尤其是不确定需求下企业供应链的管理决策问题具有重要的理论意义与应用价值。为此,本文对不确定需求下供应链多时段生产计划问题进行了研究。由于供应链模型中考虑了不确定性因素,算法设计中考虑将随机模拟技术同优化技术相结合。首先,论文考虑多时段内用户需求不确定时,核心企业供应链多时段的采购计划问题,建立了期望值模型,采用随机模拟技术和粒子群算法相结合的方法对模型进行求解。根据各时段不同客户需求满意度和供应商供应能力以及原材料价格决定原材料采购量,实现几个时段内供应链采购计划的整体优化。其次,论文考虑多时段内用户需求不确定时,核心企业供应链多时段的生产采购集成计划问题,根据各时段用户需求决定产品生产量,然后,再根据不同时段核心企业产品的生产量,考虑供应商供应原材料价格不确定的情况,制定多时段的原材料采购计划来使生产计划顺利进行,实现几个时段内供应链生产采购集成计划的整体优化。建立了期望值模型,采用随机模拟技术分别和粒子群以及遗传算法相结合的方法对模型进行求解。本文还讨论了两种算法的编码方式、初始种群的产生、适应度函数的设计、约束条件的处理问题。通过算例结果的分析,不仅说明求解算法的有效性,也说明了运用考虑不确定性的随机规划模型制定供应链战术的多时段生产以及采购计划可以有效地利用资源。

【英文摘要】With the incremental development of world economic integration and market globalization, the competition among enterprises depends mostly on their supply chains.Enterprise is in dynamic economy environment, so various uncertain factors will affect the supply chain structure and corresponding operations.Research on supply chain management under uncertainty environment has both academic and practical values.Therefore, in this paper, multi-time period production plan of supply chain under uncertainty is studied.Considering the uncertainty of supply chain model, the algorithm will consider the design of stochastic simulation technologies with a combination of optimization techniques.Firstly, considering the multi-time period kernel enterprise procurement plan of supply chain under uncertain user needs, this paper establishes stochastic programming expectation model, and uses stochastic simulation techniques combining with particle swarm optimization approach to solve the model.According to customer needs and satisfaction as well as raw materials prices of suppliers in different time period, quantity of raw materials

purchased are determined to achieving the minimal cost of overall supply chain.Secondly, considering the multi-time period kernel enterprise production and procurement plan of supply chain under uncertain user needs, according to customer needs in different time periods, product output are determined, then according to the kernel enterprises product output in different time periods, considering the uncertain raw materials prices of suppliers, quantity of raw materials purchased are determined to guarantee the production plan, achieving the overall supply chain production and procurement plan optimization of multi time periods.This paper establishes stochastic programming expectation model, and uses stochastic simulation techniques combining with particle swarm optimization and genetic algorithm approach to solve the model.The paper also discued the method of coding, the design of fitne function, initialization of population and treatment of constraints.Trough analysis of the result of an example, not only the validity of the algorithm is shown, but also an effective use of resources is shown by developing multi-time period production and procurement plan of supply chain considering stochastic model under uncertain demand.【关键词】不确定环境 供应链 多时段生产计划 粒子群算法 遗

传算法

【英文关键词】uncertainty supply chain multi-time period production planning particle swarm optimization algorithms(PSO)gene algorithms(GA)【备注】索购全文在线加好友

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【目录】不确定环境下供应链多时段生产计划问题研究5-6Abstract6-7

第1章 绪论10-20

摘要

1.1 研究背景10-11确定性问题12优化14

1.2 供应链管理11-141.2.2 供应链建模

12-1414-17

1.2.1 供应链中不

1.2.3 供应链1.4 论文思路1.4.2 论文1.3 供应链计划研究综述及结构安排17-20结构安排17-2020-30

1.4.1 论文基本思路17

第2章 供应链不确定性分析和处理方法

2.2 不确2.1 供应链中不确定性的来源20-21定性的应对策略21-2321-2223-24

2.2.1 几种不确定性的研究方法

2.3 随机模拟

2.5 2.2.2 不确定规划理论22-232.4 应用遗传算法求解随机规划问题24-26应用粒子群算法求解随机规划问题26-30层多时段采购计划问题研究30-44题的描述30解方法32

第3章 供应链战术

3.2 问

3.1 引言30

3.3 模型的建立30-323.5 算法设计32-35

3.4 满意度约束求3.5.1 编码设计

33-34计343.5.2 初始种群的产生343.5.3 适应度函数设

3.6 算例计3.5.4 可行性检验和约束处理34-35算和结果分析35-44成计划问题研究44-6044-45法4848计49法49-5050-5151-52

第4章 供应链战术层多时段生产采购集4.1 引言44

4.2 问题描述4.3 模型的建立45-484.5 算法设计48-49

4.4 满意度约束求解方4.5.1 编码设计

4.5.3 适应度函数设

4.6 粒子群算4.5.2 初始种群的产生48-494.5.4 可行性检验和约束处理494.7 遗传算法50-524.7.2 交叉算子514.8 算例计算和结果分析

4.7.1 选择算子4.7.3 变异算子52-60

第5章 工作总5.2 展望

硕士期间发结与展望60-6260-62

5.1 工作总结60参考文献62-66致谢66-68表论文68