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“美利坚，你的路在何方？” 半个世纪前，“垮掉的一代”的代表作家杰克•凯鲁雅克就曾发出这样的疑问，现在这个问题成为困扰世界经济的最大不确定性因素，同时也反应了美国选民最大的担忧，11月2日国会中期选举在即，而美国10%的失业率还是居高不下。人们要有所准备，前路漫漫，充满坎坷。

The most wrenching receion since the 1930s ended a year ago.But the recovery—none too powerful to begin with—slowed sharply earlier this year.GDP grew by a feeble 1.6% at an annual pace in the second quarter, and seems to have been stuck somewhere similar since.The housing market slumped after temporary tax incentives to buy a home expired.So few private jobs were being created that unemployment looked likelier to rise than fall.Fears grew over the summer that if this deceleration continued, America’s economy would slip back into receion.自上世纪30年代以来最严重的经济衰退在一年前结束。但是复苏的起步步伐不够强劲，并且势头在今年早些时候突然放缓。GDP在第二季度的年增长速度只有区区1.6%，并且自那以后就再无起色。政府对购买过期未还贷的住房给予短期的税收鼓励政策，但是之后房地长市场行情一路下跌。私营领域几乎没有创造出新的工作岗位，失业率有明显上升趋势。整个夏天人们都在担心，如果复苏继续放缓，美国经济可能再次滑向衰退的深渊。

Fortunately, those worries now seem exaggerated.Part of the weakne of second-quarter GDP was probably because of a temporary surge in imports from China.The latest statistics, from reasonably good retail sales in August to falling claims for unemployment benefits, point to an economy that, though still weak, is not slumping further.And history suggests that although nascent recoveries often wobble for a quarter or two, they rarely relapse into receion.For now, it is most likely that America’s economy will crawl along with growth at perhaps 2.5%: above stall speed, but far too slow to make much difference to the joble rate(see article).幸运的是，现在看来这些担心似乎被夸大。第二季度GDP疲软的部分原因可能是因为从中国的进口暂时性上涨。从八月份相当好的销售业绩到失业津贴的需求下降，最新的统计数据无不显示，经济虽然仍旧疲软，但是已经止住了下滑的趋势。而历史告诉我们，虽然复苏初期的脚步虽然会在一或两个季度内摇摆不稳，但是很少会再次步入衰退。对于现在而言，最大的可能是美国经济会以大约2.5%的增长速度缓慢爬行，但是这一速度太过缓慢，无法大幅改变失业率。

Why, given that America usually rebounds from receion, are the prospects so bleak? Because most past receions have been caused by tight monetary policy.When policy is loosened, demand rebounds.This receion was the result of a financial crisis.Recoveries after financial crises are normally weak and slow as banking systems are repaired and balance-sheets rebuilt.Typically, this period of debt reduction lasts around seven years, which means America would emerge from it in 2014.By some measures, households are reducing their debt burdens unusually fast, but even optimistic seers do not think the proce is much more than half over.如果说美国经济通常在衰退后会有反弹，那么为什么此次复苏的前景如此暗淡？原因是之前发生的衰退大多数是由紧缩的货币政策造成的。当政策放松，经济就会反弹。衰退是金融危机造成的结果。经济危机后的复苏通常疲软缓慢，因为银行系统需要修复，资产负债表需要重建。通常，债务减持会持续7个月左右，这就意味着美国在2014年才能从中抽身。美国家庭正在通过一些手段以超常的速度减少债务负担，但是即使是最乐观的估计也认为债务减持的过程才刚刚过半。

Battling on the bus

前行路上的较量

America’s biggest problem is that its politicians have yet to acknowledge that the economy is in for such a long, slow haul, let alone prepare for the consequences.A few brave officials are beginning to sound warnings that the joble rate is likely to “stay high”.But the political debate is more about aigning blame for the receion than about suggesting imaginative ways to give more oomph to the recovery.美国的最大问题是，政治家仍然不得不承认美国经济注定要经受如此漫长的拉锯战，更不必说为随后的结果做准备了。少数勇敢的官员开始敲响警钟，失业率很可能会“居高不下”。但是政治辩论关注更多的是谁来承担衰退的责任，而不是提出有想象力的办法来给复苏提供更多的动力。

Republicans argue that Barack Obama’s shift towards “big government” explains the

economy’s weakne, and that high unemployment is proof that fiscal stimulus was a bad idea.In fact, most of the growth in government to date has been temporary and unavoidable;the longer-run growth in government is more modest, and reflects the policies of both Mr Obama and his predeceor(see article).And the notion that high joblene “proves” that stimulus failed is simply wrong.The mechanics of a financial bust suggest that without a fiscal boost the receion would have been much worse.共和党人认为巴拉克•奥巴马转而走向“大政府”解释了为什么经济会疲软，而高失业率证明经济刺激是个坏主意。事实上，迄今为止，大多数政府规模的扩大都是暂时性的和不可避免的；长远的政府规模扩大要更加适度，并且能够反应奥巴马和他前任的政策。而简单地说高失业率证明经济刺激失败的说法是错误的。而根据经济萧条的规律，如果没有财政刺激，经济衰退的情况会比现在更糟。

Democrats have their own cla-warfare version of the blame game, in which Wall

Street’s excees caused the problem and higher taxes on high-earners are part of the solution.That is why Mr Obama’s legislative priority before the mid-terms is to ensure that the Bush tax cuts expire at the end of this year for households earning more than $250,000 but are extended for everyone else.民主党人对于谁是谁非有自己的一套评判标准，他们认为是华尔街的胡作非为才导致了今天的问题，而向高收入者征收更高的税赋是解决方案的一部分。这就是为什么奥巴马在中期选举前在立法上要优先确保将布什政府制定的减税政策的受益范围扩大到其他每个人，布什政府的减税政策原先受益的只是收入超过25万美元的家庭，该政策在年底到期。

This takes an unneceary risk with the short-term recovery.America’s experience in 1937 and Japan’s in 1997 are powerful evidence that ill-timed tax rises can tip weak economies back into receion.Higher taxes at the top, along with the waning of fiscal stimulus and belt-tightening by the states, will make a weak growth rate weaker still.Le noticed is that Mr Obama’s fiscal plan will also worsen the medium-term budget me, by making tax cuts for the middle cla permanent.这种做法对于短期的复苏来说是一个不必要的风险。美国1937年和日本1997年的经验有力地证明了不合时宜的增加税收可能使疲软的经济重蹈衰退的覆辙。更高的税赋加上减弱的财政刺激和政府的紧缩政策将使本已疲软的经济更加无力增长。很少有人注意到，奥巴马针对中产阶级的永久性减税的财政计划还将使中期的预算更加糟糕。

Ways to overhaul the engine

如何检修经济发动机

In an ideal world America would commit itself now to the medium-term tax reforms and spending cuts needed to get a grip on the budget, while leaving room to keep fiscal policy loose for the moment.But in febrile, partisan Washington that is a pipe-dream.Today’s goals can only be more modest: to nurture the weak economy, minimise uncertainty and prepare the ground for

tomorrow’s fiscal debate.To that end, Congre ought to extend all the Bush tax cuts until 2013.Then they should all expire—prompting a serious fiscal overhaul, at a time when the economy is stronger.在理想状态下，美国现在会承诺在中期进行税收改革，并且减少开支以控制预算，同时留有空间保持宽松的财政政策。但是这只是盲目的华盛顿头脑发热的空想罢了。现在的目只有更加保守：给虚弱的经济补充营养，最大程度减小不确定性，并且准备好明天财政辩论的依据。为此，国会应该将所有的布什减税政策延期到2013年。然后当所有的减税政策到期---在经济情况好转时进行认真的财政大检查。

A broader set of policies could help to work off the hangover faster.One priority is to encourage more write-downs of mortgage debt.Almost a quarter of all Americans with mortgages owe more than their houses are worth.Until that changes the vicious cycle of rising foreclosures and falling prices will continue.There are plenty of ideas on offer, from changing the bankruptcy law so that judges can restructure mortgage debt to empowering special trustees to write down loans.They all have drawbacks, but a fetid pool of underwater mortgages will, much like Japan’s loans to zombie firms, corrode the financial system and harm the recovery.一套更广泛的政策可以更快地帮助解决这种头重脚轻的局面。应该优先考虑鼓励更多的抵押债务进行资产减值。几乎四分之一担负抵押贷款债务的美国人拥有比他们的房屋价值更高的财产。在资产减值改变取消抵押品赎回权案例不断上升的恶性循环之前，房产价格会继续下跌。有很多方案可供选择，可以更改破产法让法官重组抵押债务，也可以授权特别委托人减低贷款账面价值，等等。这些方案都有缺点，但是与日本给僵死的公司提供的贷款的作法极其相似，放任抵押贷款泡在一潭腐臭的死水里会腐蚀金融系统，对经济复苏产生危害。

Cleaning up the housing market would help cut America’s unemployment rate, by making it easier for people to move to where jobs are.But more must be done to stop high joblene becoming entrenched.Payroll-tax cuts and credits to reduce the cost of hiring would help.(The health-care reform, alas, does the opposite, at least for small businees.)Politicians will also have to think harder about training schemes, because some workers lack the skills that new jobs require.清理房地产市场可以让人们更容易搬到有工作的地方去，从而有助于削减美国的失业率。但是还需要做更多的工作来打破失业率居高不下的态势。削减工资税和降低雇佣成本可以起到作用。（医疗改革起的作用正好相反，至少对于小企业是如此。）政治家还要想更多的办法提供就业培训，因为一些工人缺少信工作所需要的劳动技能。

Americans are used to great distances.The sooner they, and their politicians, accept that the road to recovery will be a long one, the faster they will get there.美国人民习惯于长途跋涉。美国人民和美国的政治家越早承认复苏是一条漫长的道路，他们就会越快到达目的地