经济学人(3)_英国经济学人

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Reauringly unfriendly

令人放心地不友善

Today is more like the 1980s than the 1990s in another way, too: the hostility of the buyers.The dotcom era was nauseatingly cosy, with only 4% of deals struck in 2000 deemed hostile or unsolicited.This year the level is hovering close to 20%.One reason for this is the growing influence of shareholders, notably hedge funds, whose patience is short.Given this new breed of owner-agitator, managers of targeted firms are le likely to “dig trenches and stay there,” says Victor Lewkow, a merger lawyer with Cleary Gottlieb.Pension funds and other once-staid institutional shareholders are also becoming more willing to entertain offers as they strive to increase returns.从另一方面，即：买家的敌对程度，来说，今天更像上世纪的80年代，而不是90年代。达康时代平稳发展得让人感觉提不起精神，在2000年所进行的交易中仅有4%被认为是恶意交易或无约束力交易。而在今年，这个百分比快挺进到20%。原因之一是，股东的影响力在不断增加，尤其是对冲基金的影响力，他们的耐心一向不多。面对这种新出现的所有人型煽动者，目标公司的经理不再可能“挖个战壕，躲在那里，” 美国佳利律师事务所的兼并律师维克多·卢科（音译，Victor Lewkow）说道。随着养老金基金和其他以前沉稳的机构股东在努力增加收益，他们也都变得更加愿意接受报价。

As in the 1980s antitrust authorities seem to have become more relaxed than they were in the 1990s, especially in America.Mr Lewkow thinks some companies are rushing to do attractive but “dicier” deals(from an antitrust standpoint)in the hope of getting them approved before the change of president, and a poible tightening of enforcement policies.Even so, the likes of Alcoa and Thomson face daunting obstacles.Credit Suie puts the chances of succe for the Reuters takeover at 60%.和在80年代一样，今天反垄断当局的态度似乎要比他们在90年代的时候更加宽松，尤其是在美国。卢科认为，一些公司急着做成有吸引力但风险更大的交易（站在反垄断的立场上），希望在总统换任之前把交易敲定，并且加紧政策的执行。虽然如此，诸如美铝亚洲和汤姆森集团等其它收购企业仍要面对难以克服的障碍。瑞士信贷认为，收购路透集团的成功性仅有60%。

But getting a deal past the antitrust police is only half the battle.Research shows that mergers often fail to bring expected benefits: look no further than the break-up of DaimlerChrysler after nine unhappy years.M&A advisers dispute this, pointing to studies that show buyers outperform the market, at least in the year after the deal.But the danger of overpaying clearly increases as competition for transactions heats up and stockmarkets scale new heights.There are signs that this is happening: the average premium being paid, when measured as a percentage of the target's cash flow, is higher that at any time since the bursting of the last bubble.但是，让交易通过反垄断当局的审查只是斗争的一半。研究显示，兼并通常不能带来期望的利益：看看戴姆勒-克莱斯勒在九年不高兴日子后的分手就清楚了。并购方面的顾问却不同意此观点，他们指出，有研究表明买家的表现至少在交易后的一年时间里是要胜过市场的。然而，随着交易竞争愈演愈烈和股市频繁创造新高，过多支付的危险无疑也在增长。有迹象显示，这一切正在发生：若将现在所支付的一般溢价作为目标公司现金流转中的百分比来计量，它是在从最后一个泡沫破碎到今天的这段时间里最高的。

Moreover, there are fears that mergers will be used to paper over cracks.Profit growth for companies in the S&P 500 will fall to 7% this year after several years of double-digit expansion, reckons Thomson Financial.Firms may join forces to hide their own deteriorating performance.而且，有人担心兼并会被用作掩盖问题的手段。汤姆森金融公司认为，在几年的两位数增长之后，标准普尔500指数公司的利润增长率会在今年降低到7%。公司也许会联合起来用兼并的方法来掩瞒它们日趋恶化的市场表现。

That should worry shareholders.For those who advise on deals, however, the bigger concern is what might bring the party to an abrupt end.A sharp economic slowdown in America? The collapse of a giant buy-out? A credit crunch with no clear trigger? In private, most bankers say it cannot go on for much longer.In public, they will just keep clinking their glaes.这应该会使股东担心。但对于那些交易顾问来说，更值得关注的事情是，什么会使这个狂欢戛然而止。会是美国经济发展的突然减速？会是一次巨型收购的失败？还会是在无明显诱因下发生的信用崩溃？在私底下，大部分的银行家表示，兼并热不可能持续太长。然而，在公众场合，他们仅会继续互相碰着酒杯。

Lost in translation 在折算中迷失

If China sharply revalued the yuan, as American politicians are demanding, it could actually hurt the United States and help China

如果中国如美国政客们苛求的那样对急剧升值人民币，事实上中国会得到好处，美国则会受到创伤。

CHINA is being cast as the villain once again.By holding its exchange rate artificially low, it is stealing jobs and causing the United States to run a huge trade deficit.Beijing must therefore be forced to revalue the yuan.These are the arguments behind an increasingly protectionist mood in Washington.Yet they are largely flawed.A stronger Chinese currency would not much reduce America's trade deficit.Indeed, the irony is that China, not America, has more to gain from setting the yuan free.Without a more flexible exchange rate, there is a growing risk that China's sizzling economy will boil over.中国正再次扮演反派人物。通过人为保持低汇率,它窃取就业机会，并且致使美国承担了巨额贸易逆差。因此，北京必须被迫升值人民币。这些就是华盛顿越来越多的贸易保护主义情绪背后的论调。然而他们大错特错了。更加坚挺的人民币对于减少美国贸易赤字收效甚微。实际上，具有讽刺意味的是，中国（而不是美国）从放开人民币管制当中获益更多。如果没有更加灵活的汇率，滋滋响的中国经济会面临沸腾的危险。

Although by themselves these actions are trivial, together they point to an increasing appetite for tougher action against China.The Bush administration is under increasing preure, particularly from Congre.尽管就自身来讲这都是一些小动作，但是联合起来就表明了对于采取更强硬措施反对中国的越来越大的胃口。布什政府顶着（特别是来自国会的）越来越多的压力。

Congremen complain that the so-called China-US Strategic Economic Dialogue(a series of high-level talks between the two countries launched last year by Hank Paulson, the treasury secretary)has so far failed to produce results.The recent deterioration in trade relations does not bode well for the next meeting, which begins on May 22nd.Many commentators now reckon that Congre will inevitably pa some kind of China-bashing legislation later this year.A sharp economic slowdown in America as a result of the collapsing housing market would make this even more likely.国会议员们抱怨，所谓中美战略经济对话（财政部长汉克.鲍尔森去年创立的两国间的一系列高层对话）迄今为止没有发挥作用近来的贸易摩擦可不是五月二十二日开始的下一次会议的吉兆。现在许多评论员预计国会将在今年晚些时候通过某种痛击中国的法案。房地产市场的崩溃导致的美国经济的急速衰退使其更加可能发生。

The biggest risk comes from measures linked to China's supposed exchange-rate misalignment.The infamous Schumer-Graham bill, which proposed a 27.5% tariff on all Chinese goods to offset the yuan's alleged undervaluation, was withdrawn last year.But the two senators behind it are working with others on a new WTO-compatible version that could soon appear.Although the new bill is unlikely to include acro-the-board tariffs, it could have sharp teeth.最大的风险来自测量假定的中国汇率失调的标准。声名狼藉的舒默-格雷厄姆法案——建议对所有中国商品征收27.5%关税以抵消人民币所谓的低估——在去年被撤销。而作为始作俑者的两名参议员以及其他人正在为即将浮出水面的世贸组织的匹配版本而辛勤工作。尽管新法案不太可能包含全面关税,但还是会有尖牙利齿。

Meanwhile, the target of all this hostility looms ever larger: China's trade surplus with America increased to $233 billion last year, accounting for almost 30% of America's total deficit.China's total current-account surplus reached an estimated $250 billion, or 9% of GDP, up from only 1% in 2001.Worse still, in the first four months of 2007, its trade surplus jumped by 88% compared with the same period in 2006.同时,所有敌对行动的对象之大前所未有：去年中国对美国的贸易顺差增加到2330亿美元，几乎占美国全部贸易逆差的30%。中国的经常项目[3]帐户盈余总额估计达到2500亿美元，或者国内生产总值的9%，而2001年这一比例仅为1%。更糟的是,2007年前四个月，其贸易顺差与2006年同期相比跃升了88%。

The making of myths 谬论的产生

China officially abandoned its decade-long policy of pegging the yuan to the dollar in July 2005.Since then it has risen by only 8% against the greenback.Because the dollar itself has weakened, the yuan's trade-weighted exchange rate has barely budged.In real trade-weighted terms it is about 10% cheaper than at the dollar's peak in 2002.As a result, it is not just the usual protectionist suspects that demand action, but many mainstream American economists are now calling on China to revalue by 20% or more.Yet the standard arguments for a revaluation are based partly on a series of myths.2005年7月，中国正式放弃实行十年之久的人民币盯住美元政策。从那以后，人民币对美钞已经升值8%。因为美元自身的疲软，人民币的贸易加权汇率[4]几乎没有变动。在实际贸易加权范围内，它比美元出现最高值的2002年还要便宜10%。结果,不仅仅是贸易保护主义者嫌疑犯请求采取措施，现在就连美国主流经济学家也呼吁人民币升值20%或者更多。然而关于升值的标准论调部分地基于种种谬论。

The first myth is that there is overwhelming evidence that the yuan is groly undervalued.China's large bilateral trade surplus with America proves nothing.It largely reflects Asia's changing supply chain.Much of what America buys from China today once came from Japan, South Korea and Taiwan.China now imports components from these countries, aembles them and exports the finished goods to America.Knock out these and America's bilateral deficit with China shrinks by more than half.Even so, China's overall current-account surplus is also huge.The surge in its foreign-exchange reserves, to over $1.2 trillion, also suggests that the yuan is undervalued: without those maive purchases of dollars, the currency would have risen.谬论一：是人民币币值被严重低估铁证如山。中国对美国的巨额双边贸易顺差证明不了什么。这基本上反映了亚洲供应链的变化。今天美国从中国购买的商品从前大部分来自日本,韩国和台湾。现在中国从这些国家和地区进口零部件，组装为成品后出口给美国。排除掉这些因素之后，美国对中国的贸易逆差将缩水一大半。虽然如此，中国的经常项目帐户盈余总额还是庞大的。超过一万二千亿美元的外汇储备的涌入，也暗示着人民币被低估了；如果没有如此巨额的美元买进，货币本该升值的。

However, not all economists agree that the yuan needs to be sharply revalued.At one extreme is Morris Goldstein, of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, who argues that the yuan is undervalued by 40% or more against the dollar and should immediately be revalued by 10-15%.In the other corner many highly respected economists, including Robert Mundell, an economics Nobel prize-winner, and Ronald McKinnon, of Stanford University, strongly argue against a big appreciation of the yuan.然而,并非所有的经济学家都同意人民币需要急速升值这一说法。一个极端是彼得森国际经济研究所的莫里斯.戈尔德施泰因，他主张人民币对美元被低估了40%或者更多，并应立刻升值10-15%。另一个极端是许多德高望重的经济学家，他们（包括诺贝尔经济学奖得主罗伯特.蒙代尔[5]，以及斯坦福大学的罗纳德.麦金农[6]）强烈反对人民币的大幅升值。

The devil to measure 流氓度量法

Economists find it devilishly hard to define the “correct value” for a currency.On purchasing-power parity(PPP), the yuan is clearly undervalued against the dollar.Perhaps by as much as 50%.But PPP is not useful for determining the optimal exchange rate between two countries of such different levels of income.It is natural for average prices to be lower in poorer countries because wages are lower.As countries get richer and their productivity rises, their real exchange rates appreciate.And although the depreciation in the yuan's real trade-weighted value since 2002 looks perverse, this follows a real appreciation of 50% between 1994 and 2001(see chart 1).经济学家发现给货币定义“正确的价值”难于上青天。就购买力平价[7]来讲，人民币对美元显然被低估了。大概50%那么多。然而购买力平价对确定不同收入水平的两国间的最优汇率没有作用。穷国因为工资较低所以自然而然地平均价格也比较低。随着国家变得富裕，生产力水平提高，实际汇率也会水涨船高。而尽管自从2002年以来，人民币的实际贸易加权值一直降低，这看起来是故意作对，但是这是因袭1994至2001年的实际上50%的增值。

A study by two IMF economists, Steven Dunaway and Xiangming Li, found that estimates for the undervaluation of the yuan ranged from zero to nearly 50%, depending on which method was used.Another recent study, by Yin-Wong Cheung, Menzie Chinn and Eiji Fujii, concluded that using conventional statistical methods it is hard to prove that the yuan is much undervalued.Such uncertainty may partly explain why America's Treasury Department has so far ducked labelling China as a currency manipulator in its twice-yearly report to Congre.Another reason is that it is loth to give ammunition to the protectionist lobby.两名国际货币基金组织经济学家——史蒂文.达纳韦和李向明（音）——的一项研究表明，因使用的方法不同，对于人民币低估的价值估计从零到50%不一而足。近来另一项来自Yin Wong Cheung, Menzie Chinn以及Eiji Fujii的研究,得出结论说很难用传统的统计方法来证明人民币被严重低估。这种不确定性可以部分地解释为何迄今为止美国财政部在给国会的半年度报告里一直避免把中国打上货币操纵者的标签。另一个原因是它讨厌给贸易保护主义议员（攻击中国）提供弹药。

Myth number two is that the sharp increase in China's trade surplus is due to an explosion in cheap exports.Until 2004 China's surplus was relatively modest, but it soared over the next two years(see chart 2).Jonathan Anderson, chief Asia economist at UBS, points out that export growth actually slowed between 2004 and 2006(see chart 3).The main reason for the bigger trade surplus was a sharp slowdown in the annual real growth rate in imports, from more than 30% in early 2004 to le than 15% last year.谬论二：中国贸易顺差的急速增加全拜廉价出口商品的剧增所赐。直到2004年中国的贸易顺差都是先对适中的，但在随后两年却突飞猛进。瑞士联合银行[8]亚洲首席经济学家乔纳森.安德森指出，实际上出口增长在2004至2006年间放缓了。巨额贸易顺差的主要原因是进口的年度实际增长率急速降低——从2004年初的超过30%到去年的不到15%。

The entire increase in China's trade surplus since 2004 has come from trade in heavy industrial materials and equipment.China used to import increasing amounts of steel, aluminium, chemicals and machinery, but import growth collapsed after 2004 when the government started to tighten policy, causing a sharp slowdown in construction, one of the biggest importers of machinery and materials.At the same time China continued to invest heavily in metals and equipment, creating substantial exce capacity, so import growth remained relatively weak last year.Mr Anderson argues that imports should recover as overcapacity is used up.自从2004年以来中国的贸易顺差整体增加源自重工业原料和设备的贸易。中国曾经不断增加进口钢材，铝，化工原料和机械,然而2004年政府开始紧缩政策，造成作为最大的机械原料进口者的建筑业的急剧衰退之后，进口增长暴跌。同时中国继续大量地投资金属和设备行业，创造坚实的超额生产能力，所以去年的进口增长仍然是比较疲软的。安德森先生认为，当过剩的生产能力被消耗殆尽的时候，进口应该会复苏。

The third fallacy is that imports from China destroy jobs and harm the American economy.It is hard to see how China can be blamed for job loes when America's unemployment rate(4.5%)is close to its lowest for decades.Trade with China may affect the composition of jobs in America, but it has little impact on total employment.It is true that some workers are harmed by trade with China, just as there are some losers from all international trade.But the American economy overall is better off, so in theory there is ample room to compensate any losers.谬论三：从中国进口摧毁就业机会，损伤美国经济。当美国的失业率(4.5%)跌至数十年来的最低点的时候，很难理解中国要为就业机会的流失负责。与中国的贸易会影响美国的就业结构，但却完全不会影响总就业人数。正如所有的国际贸易总会有失败者一样，一些劳动者因与中国的贸易而受损。然而美国的总体经济境况更好了，所以理论上有足够的余地补偿所有的失败者。

Trade with China helps, not harms the average American.Thanks to imports from China, prices are lower and real incomes higher.Commentators often refer to the “cheap” yuan as being an unfair subsidy for Chinese exporters.But it is a moot question who exactly is subsidising whom.Not only do cheap imports subsidise American consumers, but China's large purchases of Treasury bonds also hold down American interest rates, thereby subsidising home buyers.Suppose that overnight the yuan rose by 30%, what would happen? American interest rates would rise as China needed to buy fewer Treasury securities and prices at Wal-Mart would increase.If consumer spending and imports then collapsed, this would certainly reduce America's trade deficit, but in a much more painful way than most Americans have in mind.同中国的贸易帮助了而非损害了普通的美国人。多亏从中国进口商品，价格更加低廉而实际收入增加了。评论员们经常把“便宜的”人民币作为给中国出口商的不公平补贴来引用。然而到底谁给了谁好处，这是个悬而未决的问题。非但廉价的进口商品使美国消费者获益，而且中国大量购买政府债券还抑制了美国的利率，藉此让家庭型顾客受惠。假如一夜之间人民币升值30%，会发生什么事？因为中国只需购买很少的国库证券，美国的利率就会上升；而沃尔玛的价格也会提高。如果压缩消费性开支和进口量，的确会减少美国的贸易逆差，但是其痛苦程度是大多数美国人做梦都想不到的。

Wishful thinking 一厢情愿

The biggest myth of all is that a revaluation of the yuan would greatly reduce America's trade deficit.The real cause of the deficit is that Americans spend too much and save too little.This means that the country has to import surplus savings from abroad by running a current-account deficit.If a stronger yuan did not cause Americans to save more, it would do little by itself to reduce the trade deficit.最大的谬论是，人民币升值将极大的减少美国的贸易逆差。逆差的真正原因是美国人消费太多而储蓄太少。这就意味着，国家不得不通过经常帐户赤字从国外吸入过剩储蓄。如果更加坚挺的人民币并没有导致美国人储蓄更多，（人民币想）减少贸易逆差也是心有余力不足。

Another reason why even a big rise in the yuan would do little to reduce America's deficit is that there is little overlap between American and Chinese production, so American goods cannot replace Chinese imports.Instead, other countries, such as Indonesia and Vietnam, would probably replace the Chinese.Shifting purchases to higher-cost producers amounts to imposing a tax on American consumers, says Stephen Roach, chief economist of Morgan Stanley.人民币的急速升值对减少美国的逆差无能为力的另一个原因是，中国的和美国的产品之间几乎没有重叠，因此美国商品不能替代从中国进口的商品。相反，其他诸如印度尼西亚和越南等国家或许将取中国而代之。转而购买高成本生产者的商品等于是对美国消费者征税，摩根斯坦利[9]首席经济学家史蒂芬.罗奇如是说。

Even where America and China do compete, as in electronics, the high import content of China's exports blunts the impact of exchange-rate movements on export prices, because a rise in the yuan reduces input costs.About half of China's exports consist of goods that have been aembled from imported components.And domestic wages and materials account for about 30% of the cost of those re-exports.Mr Anderson estimates that a 10% rise in the yuan would increase average export prices by only 3-5%.就算在中美间确有竞争的领域（如电子设备），由于人民币升值减少了投入的成本,中国出口商品的极高的进口构成也会钝化汇率变化对出口价格的影响。中国大约一半的出口由来自进口零部件组装而成的商品构成。而国内的薪金和原料大约只占那些再出口商品成本的30%。安德森先生估计，人民币升值10%仅会让平均出口价格增加3-5%。

If a yuan revaluation encouraged other Asian economies to follow suit, the impact on America's trade deficit would be larger, but still modest.If a 10% revaluation of the yuan were matched by all other Asian currencies, the dollar's trade-weighted index would fall by 4%.Yet, the 19% decline in the dollar's trade-weighted index since early 2002 has failed to trim the deficit.如果人民币升值鼓励其他亚洲经济体亦步亦趋，对美国贸易逆差的影响将会较大，但仍然是适中的。如果其他亚洲货币和人民币一起升值10%，美元的贸易加权指数将会下跌4%。然而，2002年初以来，美元的贸易加权指数跌落19%，却并没有平衡贸易逆差。

None of this means that a yuan revaluation leaves America's trade deficit unchanged, simply that any change would probably be small.Nouriel Roubini, of Roubini Global Economics, finds evidence that China's trade balance is affected by movements in its exchange rate: the yuan has fallen sharply against the euro since 2002 as a result of the dollar's decline, and China's exports to Europe have consequently grown at a faster rate than its exports to America.A stronger yuan might therefore curb China's exports to America, but America's deficit would continue to loom large if imports from China were simply replaced by those from elsewhere.这并不是意味着人民币的升值无力改变美国的贸易逆差，简单来说即使有也很微弱。洛宾尼全球经济的诺瑞尔.洛宾尼发现了中国的贸易平衡受汇率影响的证据：受美元贬值的牵连，2002年以来人民币对欧元急速贬值，而结果中国对欧洲的出口以比出口美国更快的速度增长。因此更加坚挺的人民币可能抑制中国对美国的出口，然而如果仅是简单地用其他国家替代中国的话，美国的贸易逆差将继续显得突出。

Chinese whispers 中国私语

Many of the arguments heard in America in favour of a big revaluation of the yuan are flawed or at least exaggerated.However, many of the arguments used in Beijing for why a revaluation would endanger China's economy are equally suspect.For instance, the common claim that a big jump would seriously harm China's growth and employment contradicts the argument(also favoured by Beijing)that an appreciation would have little effect on China's trade surplus with America.在美国听到的赞成人民币大力升值的论调是风生水起，或者至少是夸大其词。然而,北京使用的解释为何升值会危及中国经济的许多论证同样值得怀疑。例如,关于大的上涨将严重损害中国的增长和就业的普遍主张与增值几乎不会影响中国对美国的贸易顺差的论点（挠到了北京的痒处）相矛盾。

Or take another popular line of defence: it is often aerted that China cannot afford a more flexible exchange rate until its dodgy banking system is reformed and strengthened.Eswar Prasad, an economist at Cornell University, says this argument has it completely backwards.The distortions caused by today's rigid exchange-rate regime may themselves be the biggest threat to Chinese financial stability.A sound banking system requires an independent monetary policy, which uses interest rates rather than blunt directives, to guide credit.And a country cannot control its monetary policy unle it accepts a more flexible exchange rate.或者用另一个更受欢迎的防线：中国经常宣称在总是出岔子的金融系统得到改革并巩固之前，受不了更具弹性的汇率体系。康奈尔大学[10]的经济学家埃斯华.普拉萨德表示这种论点是完全颠倒的。由固定汇率体系引起的扭曲本身可能就是中国金融稳定的最大的威胁。健全的金融系统需要独立自主的货币政策，利用利率而不是生硬的指令来管理信贷。一个国家只有采取更具弹性的汇率制度才能控制金融政策。

By tying the yuan closely to the dollar, China has been forced to hold its interest rates lower than is prudent: higher rates would attract more “hot money” from abroad, putting upward preure on the currency.The real rate of interest paid on bank deposits is negative and lending rates are far too low for such a fast-growing economy.Cheap money results in exceive bank lending and poor investment decisions, which could lead to an increase in non-performing loans.Exceively low interest rates are also fuelling stockmarket and property bubbles.通过人民币与美元紧密挂钩，中国已被迫维持低到不能用谨慎来形容的利率水平：高利率会吸引更多国外的“热钱”[11]，给货币带来升值压力。为银行存款支付的实际利息率是负数，而贷款利率对于这样快速增长的经济来说太低了。低利借款源于过多的银行贷款和导致不良贷款[12]增加的拙劣的投资方案。过低的利率水平还会助长股票市场以及房地产市场的泡沫。

News that China's real GDP surged by a breathtaking 11.1% in the year to the first quarter and that consumer-price inflation had risen to 3.3% in March(it eased to 3% in April), stoked fears that the economy is out of control.But concerns about overheating in the usual sense of exce demand are exaggerated.China's widening current-account surplus and its strong investment imply exce supply.Excluding food, the inflation rate is only 0.9%.Instead, the real concern is that exce liquidity, as a result of the surge in foreign-exchange reserves and low interest rates, is flooding into shares(see article).Households are withdrawing money from low-yielding bank accounts to bet on the stockmarket.China needs much higher interest rates to cool its aet markets.To regain control over its monetary policy China needs to let the yuan rise.今年一季度中国的实际国内总产值骤增了惊心动魄的11.1%，三月份的消费价格指数[13]上涨3.3%(四月份减少到3%),这些消息给经济失控的担心火上浇油。但是对于一般来说是需求过大而经济过热的忧虑是耸人听闻了。中国不断增长的经常帐户盈余以及强劲投资意味着超额供给。除食物以外，通货膨胀率仅为0.9%。相反，真正应该担心的是，外汇储备以及低利率资金带来的过剩的流动性大量涌入股票市场。家庭从低收益的银行帐户中取出资金，到股市里一博输赢。中国需要更高的利率来冷却资本市场。为了恢复对金融政策的控制，中国需要让人民币升值。

A revaluation could also help the government succeed in shifting the balance of growth away from investment and net exports towards consumption.A stronger exchange rate would boost consumers' purchasing power, allowing them to buy more foreign goods.Exce saving in China is as much to blame for global imbalances as inadequate saving in America.升值还可以帮助政府成功调整增长的平衡，远离投资和净出口，而接近消费。坚挺的汇率将增加消费者的购买力,使他们能够购买更多的外国商品。中国的超额储蓄，跟美国的不充分储蓄一起作为全球不平衡的原因而广受指责。

Most of the increase in saving has come from Chinese companies, which are earning record profits.But household saving is also kept high by the poor public provision of health, education and pensions.Partly as a result, consumption accounts for an unusually low share of GDP.储蓄增长的大部分来自中国的公司,他们正在赚取前所未有的利润。然而家庭储蓄率也因为健康,教育和养老金的糟糕的公共供给而居高不下。部分导致了，消费部门占GDP比重罕见的低。

The good news is that the mix of growth is starting to become more balanced: over the past year, investment has slowed while retail sales have quickened, rising by 15.5% in the year to April.In other words, consumer spending is now growing faster than GDP.Dragonomics, a Beijing-based research firm, estimates that consumption rose from 37% to 40% of China's nominal GDP growth in 2006 and is set to rise again this year.好消息是，增长的混乱开始变得平衡的多了：去年，投资放缓，而零售销售额活跃，从年初到四月份增长了15.5%。换句话说,现在消费性开支比国内总产值增长更快。北京的研究公司Dragonomics估计，2006年消费占中国的名义国内总产值增长的比例从37%上升到40%，而今年也再次开始增长。

The stronger growth in Chinese consumer spending has got much le attention in America than the sharp increase in the country's trade surplus.The contribution of net exports to China's growth has increased so far this year.However, the near doubling of its trade surplus in the first four months of the year was probably a one-off, because firms brought forward their shipments so as to avoid an expected reduction in export-tax rebates.Exporters are also thought to be overstating their export revenues in order to dodge capital controls and bring in foreign money to invest in Chinese aets.If so, the trade surplus should stabilise in coming months.中国消费性开支的强劲增长在美国引起的注意要比中国贸易顺差的急剧增加少的多。今年净出口对中国的增长的贡献增长如此之多。然而,前四个月近乎翻倍的贸易顺差大概是个例外，因为公司为了避免预期的出口退税的减少而提前发货。出口商们也被认为是为了躲避资本管制而高估出口收入，而且携带外币到中国投资。如果是这样的话,贸易顺差将在下个月趋于稳定。

In the long run, stronger domestic consumption could trim China's trade surplus.The government can encourage this by spending more.Its spending on health care and education rose by an average of 50% last year and it is budgeted to rise by more than 60% this year—but from such low levels that it could take years to increase social spending by enough to encourage households to save a lot le.Meanwhile, a stronger yuan would help to rebalance the mix of China's growth.长期来看,强劲的国内消费会平衡中国的贸易顺差。政府可以通过更多地支出来鼓励这种做法。去年医疗保健以及教育的支出平均增长50%，今年的预算将增长超过60%——不过从这么低的水平发展到充分鼓励家庭较少储蓄可能要费时多年来增加社会支出。同时,坚挺的人民币有助于再平衡中国增长的混乱。

Mirror image 镜花水月 This turns the whole debate about China's exchange-rate policy on its head.It is China that has the most to gain from allowing the yuan to rise.If the spat between America and China were to ignite protectionism or financial instability, it could endanger the whole world economy.All the more foolish, therefore, that economic relations are based on misperceptions on both sides.America needs to stop making China a scapegoat for the failures of American policy.Only if it gets its own economic house in order, by boosting domestic saving, will its “advice” to Beijing seem credible.Likewise, China has no right to criticise American policy when its own economy remains unbalanced.所有关于中国汇率政策的讨论引起了高层的注意。是中国从允许人民币升值中获益最多。如果中美间的口水战引爆贸易保护主义或者金融动荡，它将危及整个世界经济。因此，最愚蠢的是，这种经济关系是基于双方的错知错觉。美国需要停止让中国成为其政策破产的替罪羊。只有当它把它自己的经济搞得秩序井然的时候，它对北京的“建议”才会看起来可信。同样地，中国没有资格在自身经济失衡的情况下指责美国的政策。

America is right that China needs to revalue, but for the wrong reasons.And arguing that a revaluation helps America's economy makes it le likely that Beijing will act.Moreover, if George Bush foolishly slapped harsh trade sanctions on China, America's economy would be the biggest loser.Likewise, China is foolish to resist a more flexible exchange rate partly because it does not want to be seen as caving in to America's demands, when it is in its own interest.If the world's two leading engines of growth remain at loggerheads, everyone will pay the price.美国要求中国升值人民币是正确的，但是为了错误的理由。而主张升值会对美国经济有所帮助（这一错误的理由）则会减少北京真正采取措施的可能性。而且,如果乔治.布什傻到鼓吹给以中国严厉的贸易制裁，美国经济将是最大的输家。同样地，中国也不聪明——当它自己有利可图，只部分地出于不想被视为屈服美国的要求的想法，从而就抵制更具弹性的汇率机制。如果这两个世界领先的增长发动机仍然呆头呆脑，所有人都将会为此付出代价。

注释：

[1].出口退税，是指对出口商品已征收的国内税部分或全部退还给出口商的一种措施，这也是国际惯例。

[2].对倾销商品所征收的进口附加税。当进口国因外国倾销某种产品，国内产业受到损害时，征收相当于出口国国内市场价格与倾销价格之间差额的进口税。目的在于抵制倾销，保护国内产业。反倾销税从来是贸易大国进行关税战、贸易战的重要工具。

[3].经常项目是和资本项目相对的概念，是指国际收支中经常发生的交易项目，经常项目反映本国与外国交往中经常发生的项目，包括贸易收支（也就是通常的进出口）、劳务收支（如：运输、港口、通讯和旅游等）和单方面转移（如：侨民汇款、无偿援助和捐赠、国际组织收支等）。是最具综合性的对外贸易的指数。其他的国际收支项目，如投资、贷款等属于资本项目。

[4].根据一国各贸易伙伴的相对贸易量，给它的币值进行加权，来评估该国货币是否坚挺的一种方法。

[5].美国哥伦比亚大学教授、1999年诺贝尔经济学奖获得者、“最优货币区理论”的奠基人，蒙代尔教授对经济学的伟大贡献，一是开放条件下宏观稳定政策的理论(蒙代尔——弗莱明模型)，二是最优货币区域理论。

[6].美国斯坦福大学教授、当代金融发展理论奠基人

[7].两国货币之所以能够互相兑换，是因为它们各自在国内具有购买力，因而两国货币的汇率应该等于这两国货币的国内购买力大小之比。由于一国货币购买力的大小与该国通货膨胀率和物价的变动有关，二者呈负相关关系，因此，汇率将随通货膨胀率与物价的变动而变动。

[8].瑞士最大的商业银行，世界大跨国银行之一。1992年的资产额为1832.09 亿美元，居世界大银行第二十七位，职工约2万人，总行设在苏黎世。该银行是1912年由温特图尔银行和托根贝格银行合并组成的。

[9].受到《格拉斯——斯蒂格尔法案》的压力，70年前的1935年春天，在缅因州岸边的小岛农场里，摩根财团做出了不可变更的决定：将摩根银行拆分成两部分：一部分为JP摩根，继续从事传统的商业银行业务；另一部分被分离出成立一家完全独立的投资银行，名叫摩根士丹利。从1935年到1970年，大摩一统天下的威力令人侧目。今后再也不会有哪个投资银行能与之相提并论。它的客户囊括了全球十大石油巨头中的6个，美国十大公司的7个。当时惟一的广告词就是“如果上帝要融资，他也要找摩根士丹利。” 因此，有人说“摩根士丹利继承了美国历史上最强大的金融集团——摩根财团的大部分贵族血统，代表了美国金融巨头主导现代全球金融市场的光荣历史。”因此，《摩根财团》一书认为“摩根的战略就是使得客户感觉到自己获准加入了一家私人俱乐部，而其账户就相当于贵族社会的成员卡一样。” 1974年，摩根士丹利进行了第一次敌意大兼并，就由此主宰了敌意收购这个蛮横的世界。其后的20多年里，大摩一直是美国头号兼并顾问。在2000年之前，它的股本收益率超过30%，一直被列为上市证券公司中效益最好的。

[10].康乃尔大学Cornell University(NY)建于1865年，是由艾兹拉?康乃尔创建的。在所有“常春藤盟校”中，康乃尔是历史最短的一个，而同时它又是最大的一个。

[11].“热钱（hot money）”、“游资”是人们对国际套利资本的通俗说法，是充斥在世界上，无特定用途的流动资金。也有人形象地把国际套利资本称做“过江龙”、“金融鳄鱼”。它是为追求最高报酬及最低风险，在国际金融市场上迅速流动的短期投机性资金。它的最大特点就是短期、套利和投机。当人民币汇率预期改善、利率高于外币时，“热钱”就会千方百计地流入套利。一旦这两个条件发生反方向变化时，“热钱”就会迅速撤出，从而引起金融市场的动荡。

[12].俗称呆坏账，也就是说，银行发放的贷款不能按预先约定的期限、利率收回本金和利息。包括逾期贷款（贷款到期限未还的贷款）、呆滞贷款（逾期两年以上的贷款）和呆帐贷款（需要核销的收不回的贷款）三种情况。

[13].反映居民生活中的产品和劳务价格所统计出来的物价变动指标，通常是作为观察通货膨胀水平的重要指标。如果消费者物价指数升幅过大，表明通胀过渡，会带来经济不稳定，央行就会有紧缩货币政策和财政政策的风险，从而会造成经济前景不明朗。大于3%就称为通货膨胀。

Jun 21st 2007 From The Economist print edition

Bond investors are living in a world where nobody eats or drives 债券投资者生活在一个无人吃饭出行的世界

DO THE financial markets believe that the typical American consumer is on a permanent fast, walks everywhere and survives without heating or air conditioning? After a jittery few weeks, bond markets rallied on June 15th on news that America's core consumer price index rose by just 0.1% in May.The data were warmly greeted by stockmarkets too.The Dow Jones index rose by 86 points on the day.Investors decided that the absence of price preures would calm the nerves of rate-setters at the Federal Reserve, who have been worrying out loud about “elevated” core inflation.典型美国消费者长期滴食不进，步行去他们要去的地方，而且生活的地方没有暖气也没有空调，金融市场能相信这一切吗？经过几周短幅波荡，受美国核心CPI五月增长仅为0.1%的影响，债券市场止跌回升。这项数据在证券市场也备受欢迎。道琼斯指数当天增长了86点。投资者们确信没有了的价格压力，应该可以舒缓联邦储备系统那些利率制定者的神经，因为他们一直绞尽脑汁解决不断升级的核心通货膨胀。

What the markets blithely ignored was the day's bad news.Headline consumer prices rose by 0.7%, the biggest monthly increase for nearly two years.Unlike core inflation, the headline measure includes fuel costs, which rose sharply, as well as food prices.For bond prices to rise on such a big jump in inflation, markets must be placing a great deal of faith in the core index as the true gauge of price preures.Is that wise?

当天市场参与者过于乐观以至于根本没有注意到坏消息。整体物价消费增长了0.7%，成为两年内涨幅最高的一个月。与核心通货膨胀不同的是整体物价消费度量标准包括迅速增长的燃料费以及食品价格。单纯因为债券价格在通胀中暴涨，就为市场核心指标设置犹如真正价格压力标尺的一系列的标准，这明智么？

The cold-and-hungry index “饥寒交迫”的指数

The lure of core inflation as a barometer is that headline inflation rates tend to be volatile.Last June the annual headline rate in America, pushed up by soaring oil prices, was as high as 4.3%, but by October it had plunged to 1.3%.The rationale for excluding food and fuel is to filter out prices that jump around for temporary reasons, such as the vagaries of the weather or the mey politics of the Middle East.A good core index excludes this noise, leaving only the enduring part of inflation that reflects the weight of spending in the economy.核心通货膨胀作为晴雨表，其发展的不稳定预示着整体通货膨胀率的起伏。去年六月，由于飞涨的油价的带动，美国年整体通货膨胀增长高达4.3%，但到十月止增长率只有1.3%。将食品及燃料费用排除在外，其原理在于可以滤除那些由于临时原因而上涨的价格，此种情况就像是中东阴晴不定的天气和杂乱无章的政治。而一个良好的核心指标不会出现这些不和谐的声音，只有可以反映经济开销比重的通货膨胀这一不变的部分。

Despite these statistical merits, there are several reasons not to rely blindly on core measures.First, the elements that the core index excludes are likely to pick up lasting shifts in inflation preures earlier.Food and petrol are frequent purchases and their prices tend to be le “sticky” than those for more durable goods.Rising retail food prices can sometimes signal general price preures.They are also a strong influence on perceptions of inflation, because consumers encounter them so frequently.尽管这些统计数据对我们有好处，但是还有些原因不是盲目的依赖于核心标准的。首先，那些被核心指标排除的因素很可能比其他因素更早的加速通货膨胀压力的持久变化。食品和汽油是大家频繁购买的物品，所以他们的价格比起那些耐久品来说相对不稳定。零售食品价格的提高有时则预示着物价的压力。这些因素还很大程度的影响通货膨胀，因为大家会经常遇到这些问题。

Second, the core and volatile elements of inflation are not entirely independent.Increases in food and energy costs can squeeze spending on other goods and services, depreing prices and artificially lowering core inflation.That is the reason why Mervyn King, the Bank of England's governor, referred in a speech earlier this month to the practice of excluding price categories as “highly misleading”.其次，通货膨胀的核心因素与可变因素在一定程度上是相互依存的。食品与能量开销的增加可以减少在其他物品与服务的花费，降低物价，还可以人工地降低核心通货膨胀。这就是英国银行管理者默文?金为什么在本月初的讲话中提到排除一些价格种类的做法是“在很大程度上是一种误导”。

Third, core measures tend to stre the disinflationary supply-side of globalisation, but play down the inflationary preures on demand.The integration of China and India into the global economy has led to lower prices for manufactured goods, trimming core inflation rates.But there is a sting in the tail: rapid growth in emerging economies has pumped up global demand for primary resources and boosted commodity-price inflation—not just in oil but in food too(see article).When these preures are sustained, as they have been, core measures will under-represent true inflation.第三，核心度量标准趋向于强调通过全球化的减税刺激生产和投资来制止通货膨胀，但是一经需求便会降低通货膨胀压力。中印共同进入全球经济使得手工制成品的价格下降，并使核心通货膨胀率得以调节。然而，倒霉事在后头：新兴经济的迅速增长增加了全球对主要资源和暴增的日用品价格的不断需求——不仅是油类价格还有食品价格。这些压力一直以来都存在并将持续下去，这样一来核心标准将会低估真正的通货膨胀。

The truth is that no index is perfect(there is a long argument to be had about whether housing costs are properly measured in the core number as well).What matters most are what real consumers spend their money on—and how they react to the prices of those things.Core measures are certainly useful if they can efficiently strip out price changes that are likely to prove fleeting, without losing track of underlying inflation.But investors should remember that they are never all you need to know about inflation.Unle, of course, you live in a world without cars, air conditioners and cornflakes.事实是没有一项指标是完善的（关于住房成本在核心指数中的测量是否恰当存在着长期争论）。最重要的问题是真正的消费者把钱花费到了哪里——以及他们对于那些物价有何反应。如果核心措施能够有效地消除那些短暂且有潜在通货膨胀趋势的价格变化，那么这些措施就一定是有帮助的。但是投资者们要记住：关于通货膨胀，了解这些远远不够。当然，除非你生活在一个没有汽车，没有空调，没有脆玉米片的世界。

Aug 16th 2007 | NEW YORK From The Economist print edition

Turmoil in America's mortgage market has spread far and wide 美国次级债危机已经广泛蔓延

IF THE speed with which financial-market turmoil has spread around the world has been unnerving, fears of an even more alarming form of contagion are surfacing: it may undermine America's economy.如果遍及全球的金融市场动荡速度已经让人恐慌了，那么一种更让人担心的恐慌蔓延形式正在浮出水面：这种恐慌将会危及美国经济。

The health of the world economy is the main source of optimism at a time of unstable markets.But Hank Paulson, America's treasury secretary, acknowledged this week to the Wall Street Journal that the turmoil would “extract a penalty on the growth rate” of the American economy.在一个多变的市场时期，世界经济的健康是乐观主义的主要信心来源。但是美国财政部长Hank Paulson知道这个星期对于华尔街来说，动荡可能“向美国经济增长率开出一张罚单”

Stockmarket investors are already worried that problems in the housing market are sapping the economy's vigour.This week Wal-Mart, the world's biggest retailer, added to fears when its bo said that American consumers—who have helped underpin economic growth—face preures and that the retailer's profits this year would suffer.Its share price duly tumbled on August 14th, helping to drag down the market.Sagging confidence, as a result of falling markets and troubles in the banks, would only make matters worse.证券市场的投资者们已经担心房地产市场的问题正在消耗美国经济的元气。这个星期当世界最大的零售企业沃尔玛的老板说有力支撑美国经济增长的的消费者面临压力，而沃尔玛今年底利润会下降的时候，世界最大的零售商也加入到了恐慌的行列。同时8月14日沃尔玛的股价也下挫，顺带拖累了市场。市价下跌和银行问题不断导致了市场信心下跌，这只能让经济形势更糟。

The problems are not confined to America.Subprime mortgage loes have hit bank shares and stockmarkets around the globe.Fear that tighter debt markets will inhibit leveraged buyouts that pushed share prices higher in the first half of the year has cast a shadow over the world's stockmarkets.Volatility, which still reflected complacency in the American stockmarket many months after the subprime problems erupted, now registers something approaching panic(see chart).问题不仅局限于美国。次级债损失打击银行股价和世界证券市场。对于愈加紧缩的债券市场为了防止上半年推高股票价格而禁止负债收购的担心，已经为全球证券市场制造了阴影。次级市场问题爆发以后几个月仍然反应公众对美国证券市场信心的波动性，现在也显示有些指标临近恐慌。（图---芝加哥波动率指数）

As margin calls have forced hedge funds to raise cash, that has often meant purging their most liquid aets, such as oil.Speculative selling, as well as fears about the health of the American economy, have dragged oil prices well below their peak of $79 per barrel in late July.The Economist's metals index is 14% below its highs in May.当追加保证金通知已经强迫对冲基金增加现金，这经常意味着要求它们出售例如石油等大部分流动资产。投机性抛售和对美国经济形势的担心已经使油价从七月末的79$大幅降低。经济学家的金属价格指数低于它五月份的14%。

Shares in Asian banks, such as Mizuho and Australia's Macquarie, have had a miserable month, pushing down the region's stockmarkets.On August 15th Basis Capital, an Australian hedge-fund manager, said loes at one of its funds may top 80%.A day later, shares in RAMS, one of the country's mortgage lenders, tumbled 60% after it sought emergency funding.就像日本的瑞穗和澳大利亚的麦格理已经有了悲惨的一个月，在亚洲银行类股票打击了该地区的证券市场。8月15日澳大利亚的对冲基金Basis Capital经理说他损失最多的一支基金可能达80%。同日晚些时候，澳大利亚的抵押贷款机构RAMS在其寻找应急基金以后股价下挫60%。

The market turmoil has even extended into what are meant to be the safest—nay, dullest—corners of the investment universe.On August 14th Sentinel Management Group, which invests on behalf of traders in conservative investments in the money market, attempted to halt withdrawals because of the market turmoil.“We had previously thought that the market would return to some semblance of order and that our clients would not join in the panic.Unfortunately, this has not been the case,” it complained.市场的动荡甚至延伸到了本应该安全的投资领域的角落。在8月14日，基于客户利益在金融市场做稳健投资的Sentinel Management Group，由于市场动荡，试图阻止客户大量撤回资金。它抱怨：“我们曾经以为市场可能回到某种表面的秩序，这样我们的客户可能就不会加入到恐慌的行列中。不幸的是，事实不是这样。”

Similarly, there has been pain in some “enhanced cash funds”—in effect, money-market funds catering to institutional investors that can invest part of their portfolios in aet-backed securities.The flu has battered down even the hardiest parts of the immune system.一些“增强现金基金”也有类似的苦恼——结果，货币市场基金能够通过投资部分的利润在资产证券化上迎合机构投资者。这“流感”甚至已经破坏免疫系统最强大的部分了。

Receion in America looks increasingly likely.Can booming emerging markets save the world economy?

美国衰退可能性增大。繁荣的新兴经济市场能否挽救世界经济？

IN 1929, days after the stockmarket crash, the Harvard Economic Society reaured its subscribers: “A severe depreion is outside the range of probability”.In a survey in March 2001, 95% of American economists said there would not be a receion, even though one had already started.Today, most economists do not forecast a receion in America, but the profeion's pitiful forecasting record offers little comfort.Our latest aement(see article)suggests that the United States may well be heading for receion.1929年的美国股市崩溃之后，哈佛经济学社给它的赞助者打了一剂定心剂：“发生经济大萧条的可能性微乎其微。”2001年3月的一份调查显示，95%的美国经济学家认为经济不会衰退，即便衰退已经开始。现在，大多数的经济学家预测美国不存在经济衰退。但因为他们乏善可陈的预测成绩，人们并没有感到安心。我们最新的评估显示，美国经济正走向衰退。

Granted, GDP grew by a robust 3.9%, at an annual rate, in the third quarter.Granted also, revisions may well push this figure up.But that was the past.More timely signs suggest that the economy could stall in this quarter.By early next year, output and jobs could be shrinking.The main cause is the imploding housing market.Experts said that house prices could never fall nationwide.But fall they have, by 5% in the past 12 months.Residential investment has collapsed, but a glut of unsold homes means that prices have much further to drop.Americans' spending is likely to be dented much more by a fall in house prices than it was in 2001 by the stockmarket's collapse.With house prices lower and credit conditions tighter as a result of the subprime crisis, households can no longer borrow against capital gains to support their spending.诚然，美国第三季度的经济增长率高达3.9%，而且，修正后的增长率可能更高。但那已经过去了。很多即期数据显示，美国经济可能会在这个季度熄火。急转直下的房地产市场，可能会导致下年年初产出和工作机会的收缩。虽然专家们说过不会出现全国性范围的房价下跌，但在过去12个月房价已经下跌了5%。房产投资已经崩溃了，大批买不出去的商品房意味着住房价格会继续下跌。由于住房价格的下跌，美国国内支出与股市跳水的2001年相比要少得多。次贷危机让房产价格进一步下降,让信贷环境更加恶劣,那些房东再也不能借到用于支出的资金。

Dearer oil is set to squeeze households further(this week's drop in crude prices notwithstanding).Consumer confidence has already fallen sharply.It cannot be long before consumer spending stumbles, which in turn would hurt companies' profits and investment.The weak dollar will boost exports, but at only 12% of GDP, exports are too small to make up for a weakening of consumer spending, which accounts for 70%.昂贵的石油让居民的手头更紧，虽然这个星期原油价格有一定下降。消费者信心已经急剧下，消费的大幅下降为时不远了。这种下降反过来会损害企业的利润和投资。弱势美元能增加出口，但仅占GDP12%的出口并不足以抵消占GDP70%的消费支出的弱化。

I want to break free

自由贸易的迷思

Will an American receion drag the rest of the world down with it? The economies of Europe and Japan rebounded strongly in the third quarter, but look likely to slow down.Although both should be able to keep chugging along, neither is likely to set any great pace.Strengthening currencies will hurt exporters in both places.Europe's own housing hotspots are cooling, and some of its banks have been sideswiped by America's subprime ills.美国经济衰退是否会拖累整个世界？虽然第三季度，欧洲和日本的经济强劲反弹，但看起来很可能趋缓。虽然两者都能稳步前进，但却不能保持一致步骤。欧元和日元汇率的上升会损害他们的出口。欧洲的房产热点正在冷却，而且一些银行在美国次贷危机中遭受波及。

The best hope that global growth can stay strong lies instead with emerging economies.A decade ago, the thought that so much depended on these crisis-prone places would have been terrifying.Yet thanks largely to economic reforms, their annual growth rate has surged to around 7%.This year they will contribute half of the globe's GDP growth, measured at market exchange rates, over three times as much as America.In the past, emerging economies have often needed bailing out by the rich world.This time they could be the rescuers.现在只能期望，新兴经济体能让世界经济保持强劲增长。要是在十年前，这种认为世界经济必须依赖这些容易爆发危机的地区的想法，能让人不寒而栗。得益于经济的重组，新兴经济的经济增长率达到7%。以市场汇率计算，他们将贡献今年世界经济的一半增长，是美国的3倍之多。在过年，新兴经济经常需要世界的救济。这次，他们充当了一次救世主。

Of course, a receion in America would reduce emerging economies' exports, but they are le vulnerable than they used to be.America's importance as an engine of global growth has been exaggerated.Since 2000 its share of world imports has dropped from 19% to 14%.Its vast current-account deficit has started to shrink, meaning that America is no longer pulling along the rest of the world.Yet growth in emerging economies has quickened, partly thanks to demand at home.In the first half of this year the increase in consumer spending(in actual dollar terms)in China and India added more to global GDP growth than that in America.当然，新兴经济的出口会因美国的衰退而减少，但他们已经没有以前那么脆弱了。美国进口做为世界经济增长发动机的作用被过分夸大。到2000年，美国进口在世界进口所占的份额从19%下降到14%。经常性帐户赤字余额开始缩减，意味美国不再是世界经济的拉动者。新兴经济的加速增长，一部分要归功于国内需求。中国和印度今年前半年消费者支出的增长（以美元计）对全球GDP增长的贡献更甚于美国。

Most emerging economies are in healthier shape than ever(see article).They are no longer financially dependent on the rest of the world, but have large foreign-exchange reserves—no le than three-quarters of the global total.Though there are some notable exceptions, most of them have small budget deficits(another change from the past), so they can boost spending to offset weaker exports if need be.大部分新兴经济体的增长要比以前更健康。他们不再依靠外部资金，相反拥有大量的外汇储备——不少于世界外汇储备总量的四分之三。虽然存在一些例外，更多的新兴经济体只有很少的预算赤字（另一个变化），因此他们能以增加支出的方式去抵消出口减少带来的不利影响。

This does not mean emerging economies will grow fast enough to make up for the whole of a fall in America's output.Most of them will slow a bit next year: for instance, China's growth rate may dip to “only” 10%.So global growth will ease—which, after five years at an average of almost 5%, close to its fastest pace ever, it needs to do.But thanks to the vigour of the new titans, it will stay above its 30-year average of 3.5%.但这并不意味，新兴经济的增长能够快到消除美国产出下降带来的后果。大部分新兴经济下年的增长将会减缓：比如，中国的增长率可能下降到“只有”10%。所以，在经历了5年年均5%——接近历史最高水平——的增长之后，全球经济增长将会降温，这也是必须的。但得益于新经济巨人的活力，世界经济的增长率仍会高于3.5%这个30年年均增长率。

A tale of two prices

价格背后的故事

The rising importance of the world's new giants will not only boost growth.It will also shift relative prices, notably those of oil and the dollar.And the consequences of this will be le comfortable for developed countries, especially America.日益重要的世界大事并不仅仅是如何促进经济增长，还有如何以相对价格标示石油和美元。对发达国家，尤其是美国来说，这件事更加紧迫。

The oil price has risen mainly because of strong demand in emerging economies, which have accounted for as much as four-fifths of the total increase in oil consumption in the past five years.In past American receions the oil price usually fell.This time it is likely to hold up.That will not only hurt the finances of Western consumers, but may also make the jobs of their central bankers harder, by combining inflationary preure with economic slowdown.石油价格的上涨，主要是因为新兴经济体的强劲需求。过去5年中，石油消费增长中的五分之四来自新兴经济体。以前美国的衰退会造成油价的应声下跌。这次油价却居高不下，不但损害了西方消费者的财政，而且和通胀一道，让央行的工作更为棘手。

The enfeebled dollar—lately in sight of $1.50 to the euro—would be weaker still without enormous purchases by central banks in emerging economies.This support is now waning.China and others are putting a smaller share of increases in reserves into the American currency.And Asian and Middle Eastern countries with currencies linked to the dollar are facing rising inflation, but falling American interest rates make it harder to tighten their own monetary policy.They may have to let their currencies rise against the sickly greenback, meaning they will need to buy fewer dollars.More important, as international investors wake up to the relative weakening of America's economic power, they will surely question why they hold the bulk of their wealth in dollars.The dollar's decline already amounts to the biggest default in history, having wiped far more off the value of foreigners' aets than any emerging market has ever done.如果新兴经济体的央行不大量买进美元的话，本来就虚弱的美元——1欧元兑1.5美元——可能会更加弱势。他们的支持是苍白乏力的。中国和其他国家的央行投入美元的外汇储备越来越少。那些货币和美元挂购的亚洲和中东国家正面临不断上升的通货膨胀，持续下跌的美元利率又让他们更难以收紧货币政策。因此，他们不得不让他们的货币保持对疲弱美元的升值。这就意味着他们只需要购买比以前少的美元。更要命的是，国际投资者意识到美国经济的相对虚弱，他们当然会问为什么他们要持有大量的美元资产。美元下跌已经接近历史低点，由此被抹去的外国资产比新兴经济体创造的资产还要多。

The vigour of emerging economies is good news for the world economy: for its growth, it has much le need of a strong America.The bad news for America is that this, in turn, may mean that the world also has le need of the dollar.新兴经济体的活力对世界经济而言是个好消息：它的增长，可以更少地依靠强劲的美国经济。对美国而言，这种改变却是个坏消息，因为这意味世界对美元的需求也减少了。