考研英语阅读材料之油价下跌 是赚是赔_英语翻硕考研心得体会
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2018年考研英语阅读材料之油价下跌
是赚是赔
Cheaper oil
油价下跌
Winners and losers
赚了还是赔了?
America and its friends benefit from falling oil prices;its most strident critics don't
美国及其盟友将从油价下跌中获益;最为毒舌的批评者们却不能如此
IN EARLY October the IMF looked at what might happen to the world economy if conflict in Iraqcaused an oil-price shock.Fighters from Islamic State(IS)were pushing into the country'snorth and the fund worried about a sharp price rise, of 20% in a year.Global GDP would fall by0.5-1.5%, it concluded.Equity prices in rich countries would decline by 3-7%, and inflationwould be at least half a point higher.十月初，国际货币基金组织(IMF)预估了一旦伊拉克冲突导致油价震荡会带来怎样的后果。伊斯兰国(IS)的武装分子在向该国北部进军时，IMF担心今年油价可能会猛增约20%。它还估计今年全球GDP增速可能会下滑0.5%至1.5%。富裕国家的股价跌幅可能会达到3%至7%，而通胀率可能至少会上浮0.5个百分点。
IS is still advancing.Ruia, the world's third-biggest producer, is embroiledinUkraine.Iraq,Syria,Nigeria and Libya, oil producers all, are in turmoil.But the price of Brentcrude fell over 25% from 115 abarrel in mid-June to under 85 inmid-October, before recoveringa little.Such a shift has global consequences.Who are the winners and losers?
IS仍在继续进军。世界上
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表示，与之有关的欧洲推进了制造品出口，涨幅较世界其他地区而言，达到了6%。但是，如果油价下跌反映出需求趋弱，那么消费国可能会大获横财。
Today's falling prices are caused by shifts in both supply and demand.The world's slowingeconomy, and stalled recoveries in Europe and Japan, are reining back the demand for oil.Butthere has been a big supply shock, too.Thanks largely to America, oil production since early2013 has been running at 1m-2mbarrels per day(b/d)higher than the year before.Otherinfluences are acting as a brake on the world economy.But a price cut of 25% for oil, ifmaintained, should mean that global GDP will be roughly 0.5% higher than it would beotherwise.石油供需的变化共同导致了今天的油价下跌。世界经济增速缓慢，欧洲和日本的经济恢复近乎停滞，这些都抑制了对石油的需求。但是，石油供给也遭受了冲击。美国自2013年初起其石油的日产量就比去年增加了一两百万桶，这可是大功臣。还有其他的一些影响成为世界经济增长的后腿。但是如果能维持油价25%的跌幅，这就意味着全球GDP增速会提高约0.5%。
Some countries stand to gain a lot more than that average, and others, to lose out.The worldproduces just over 90mb/d of oil.At 115 abarrel, that is worth roughly 3.8 trillion a year;at 85,just 2.8 trillion.Any country or group that consumes more than it produces gains from the 1trillion transfer—importers, most of all.一些国家的收益肯定会比其他国家多，但也有一些国家会损失不少。全球每天的石油产量仅为900万桶，按每桶115美元算，其每年的产量大约值3.8万亿美元。如果每桶为85美元，其价值仅为2.8万亿美元。如果任何一个国家或集团的石油产量低于消费量，那么它便能从这一万亿美元获益——大多数是石油进口国。
China is the world's second-largest net importer of oil.Based on 2013 figures, every 1 drop inthe oil price saves it an annual 2.1 billion.The recent fall, if sustained, lowers its import bill by60 billion, or 3%.Most of its exports are manufactured goods whose prices have not fallen.Unle weak demand changes that, its foreign currency will go further, and living standardhould rise.中国是世界上
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