四川论文：四川城乡居民收入差距实证研究_城乡居民收入差距论文

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四川论文：四川城乡居民收入差距实证研究

【中文摘要】四川省作为西部强省,改革开放的30多年来,其经济结构不断优化,经济实力不断增强,人民的物质文化生活水平大幅提高,与此同时,城乡居民的收入差距也在不断扩大。适度的收入差距可以反映劳动效率差异,符合市场经济规律,但是过度的收入差距不仅影响社会经济效率的提高,还会影响到社会的安定。构建和谐社会、解决“三农”问题,首要要素是让城乡居民享受平等的收入分配制度。四川作为农业大省,农业人口占全省总人口的三分之二,城乡居民收入差距正逐年拉大。提高农村居民的收入水平,缩小城乡居民的收入差距不仅对四川省统筹城乡发展,而且对西部乃至全国的城乡发展都具有重要的借鉴意义。本文在梳理前人相关研究成果的基础上,从时间纬度上分析四川城乡居民的阶段性变化特征,从空间纬度上分析城乡居民收入差距的地区差异,再运用自回归移动平均模型(ARMA)和多元线性回归模型对四川城乡居民的收入差距进行趋势预测和影响因素分析。(1)对四川城乡居民收入差距现状进行分析。采用比较分析法,首先对比分析了四川城乡居民的收入结构,再分别从时间和空间两个纬度进行比较。时间上根据城乡居民相对收入差距的演变轨迹将四川省从1978年到2008年分为了4个阶段,得出四川省城乡居民的收入差距是在波动中不断扩大。空间上一方面对四川对21个市州和五个经济区进行比较分析,通过比较发现四川城乡居民收入差距地区间差异较大,且均呈现出加剧扩大的趋势；另一方面将四川城乡居民

收入差距与全国城乡居民收入差距进行比较,得出四川的城乡居民收入的发展趋势与全国趋同,绝对收入差距略低于全国平均水平。(2)对四川城乡居民的收入差距进行了趋势预测。通过采用ARMA模型对四川城乡居民收入差距的变动趋势进行预测,结果表明四川城乡居民的收入差距不仅不会缩小反而会加剧。(3)对四川城乡居民收入差距的影响因素进行实证分析。通过建立多元线性回归模型分析各因素对城乡居民收入差距的影响程度。回归结果表明各因素中只有农村居民人均生活消费支出与城乡居民收入差距负相关,其余各因素均与城乡居民收入差距正相关,其中二元结构系数是影响四川省城乡居民收入差距的主要因素。(4)提出了缩小了四川省城乡居民收入差距的政策建议。逐步消除城乡二元结构,统筹城乡发展；调整产业结构,促进全省经济发展；引导农村地区发展,促进农民增收；规范农村消费市场,形成需求拉动型绿色经济。

【英文摘要】As a western powerful province,since the reform and opening up,Sichuan province has been developing rapidly over the past 30 years.The economic structure has been optimized continuously,the economic power and the living standard of material and cultural of people enhanced markedly.We will find that there is a big income gap between urban and rural areas.On one hand,a reasonable degree can exhibit efficiency and distribution according to work under socialism market economy system.But on the other hand,huge

income gap will not only harm the improvement in economic efficiency,but also cause society to be upheaval.Now we give nationwide support to build a harmonious society.The first standard of a harmonious society is equality.To Shorten the income gap between urban and rural areas can exhibit equal income distribution system,and which is also the key of resolving the problems facing our agriculture, rural areas and farmers.Sichuan province is one of the provinces famous for its farming production.The rural population makes of more than 2/3 of the total population in Sichuan.The gap between urban and rural residents is becoming bigger and bigger.So to develop agriculture to increase the income of agricultural labourers and to shorten the income gap have important reference role not only for Coordinating Urban-Rural Development in Sichuan,but also for the West Regions and even the whole country.On the reference of other research results,this paper analyses the development trend of the income gap and the regional difference of the income gap between urban and rural residents.Finally this paper performes empirical research on the income gap in Sichuan by using Auto-Regreive and Moving Average Model and Multi factor line regreion method.Firstly,this paper analyses the current situation of the income of urban and rural

residents in Sichuan province by using comparison research method.This paper firstly discues the income structure of urban and rural residents in Sichuan province,then compares the income gap from the angle of time and space.This paper reviews the change trace of income gap between urban and rural residents in Sichuan province and divided the period from 1978 to 2008 into four stages.We can find that the income gap rises with fluctuation.From the space angle,this paper compares the 21 administrative areas of Sichuan province.The study show that the income gap is different in different administrative areas and is increasing.Then this paper compares the income gap in Sichuan with the entire country.This study show that the income in Sichuan is basically in line with that of the nation and shows the increasing trend,but the income gap is lower than the national average level.Secondly,this paper adopts the Auto regreive Integrated Moving Average Model to forecast the change trend of the income gap of urban and rural residents in Sichuan province.The results indicated that the income gap has kept widening instead of narrowing.Thirdly,this paper performes empirical research on the factors affecting income gap in Sichuan.Based on the above analysis,we can see that under present condition the income gap is widening.Therefore,the

paper using Multi factor line regreion method to analyze the impact of those factors.The result shows that all the factors have a negative correlation with the income gap except the consumption expenditure per rural resident.And Dual contrast coefficient is a most important factors affecting income gap in Sichuan.Finally,this paper puts forwards policy suggestions to shorten the income gap between urban and rural residents in Sichuan province.Eradicate the dual structure in urban and rural areas,and Overall planning the coordinated development of urban and rural areas;adjust production constitution and improve Sichuan economic development;develop rural economy and raise peasants income;standardize consumer markets in rural areas and form demand-pull green economy.【关键词】四川 城乡居民 收入差距

【英文关键词】Sichuan urban and rural residents income gap 【目录】四川城乡居民收入差距实证研究4-6Abstract6-7前言10-

2110

摘要

1.1 研究背景1.1.2 研究意义1.2.1 国外研究综和研究意义10-1110-11述11-1311-12

1.1.1 研究背景1.2 国内外研究综述11-181.2.1.1 经济增长与收入不平等1.2.1.2 社会体制与收入不平等12

1.2.1.3 教

育、人力资本与收入不平等12-1313-1813-1414-1717-1818-211920-21

211.2.2 国内研究综述1.2.2.1 收入差距的相关研究方法1.2.2.2 城乡居民收入差距的影响因素1.2.2.3 缩小城乡居民收入差距的路径1.2.3 文献评述181.3.1 研究目标18-191.3.3 研究方法19-201.4 研究创新和不足211.4.2 研究的不足21

1.3 研究目标、内容和方法1.3.2 研究内容1.3.4 技术路线图

1.4.1 研究的创新2 四川城乡居民收入差距的现状21-3721-2424-2828-3531-323232-35

2.1 四川城乡居民收入的现状分析2.2 四川城乡居民收入差距的阶段性分析2.3 四川城乡居民收入差距区域比较分析2.3.1 四川各市州城乡居民收入差距迥异2.3.2 四川各市州城乡居民收入差距逐年上升2.3.3 五大经济区城乡居民收入差距差异较大2.4 四川城乡居民收入差距与全国城乡居民收入差距四川城乡居民收入差距趋势预测

3.1.1 ARMA模型简38-40

3.1.3 时间的比较35-3737-44介37-383.1 ARMA模型的构建37-433.1.2 数据的分析与处理序列模型的建立40-43入差距的预测4343-44

3.2 ARMA(2,1)模型对四川城乡居民收3.3 四川城乡居民收入差距预测结果分析4 四川城乡居民收入差距影响因素分析

44-5144-474748-4951-5952-5952-5353-5555-5656-594.1 研究方法444.2 指标选取

4.3.1 数据来源4.3 数据来源及处理47-484.3.2 数据处理47-484.5 实证结果分析49-515.1 小结51-52

4.4 回归分析结论与建议

5.2 政策建议5.2.1 逐步消除城乡二元结构,统筹城乡发展5.2.2 调整产业结构,促进全省经济发展5.2.3 引导农村地区发展,促进农民增收5.2.4 规范农村消费市场,形成需求拉动型经济参考文献59-62

致谢62-63

攻读硕士学位期间发表的文章