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It might have been the Alpine air, but some of the chief executives and busine people in Davos came to the end of the week feeling slightly better than when they had arrived.There was still unease about the state of the eurozone and the global economy’s weakne, but their worst fears had not been reinforced.或许是因为阿尔卑斯山的空气,当齐聚达沃斯的一周临近结束时,一些首席执行官和商界人士的感觉比刚到这里的时候稍好。他们对于欧元区现状和全球经济疲弱仍感不安,不过,他们最大的担心并未加剧。
Europeans took heart from the guardedly upbeat mood among US businees about domestic growth.Meanwhile, Americans were partly reaured after being told by European policymakers that the most likely outcome for the eurozone was muddling through, rather than collapse.美国企业对于国内经济增长的谨慎乐观情绪,令欧洲人感到振奋。与此同时,当从欧洲决策者的口中得知,欧元区最有可能的结果是勉强维持、而不是解体之后,美国人也稍稍松了口气。The World Economic Forum in Davos also provided exposure to profeionals from emerging market growth economies, with both India and Brazil sending large contingents.Although nervousne rather than bullishne about economic recovery was the prevailing mood, there was little despair.What Shumeet Banerji, chief executive of Booz and Co, the management consultancy, described as “Bleak house, year four” felt a little le bleak.达沃斯世界经济论坛(World Economic Forum)也为新兴市场增长经济体的专业人士们提供了出头露面的机会,其中印度和巴西均派出了规模庞大的代表团。尽管对于经济复苏的忧虑(而非乐观)成为人们的主流情绪,但没有什么人感到绝望。管理咨询公司Booz and Co的首席执行官舒米特?班纳吉(Shumeet Banerji)口中的“荒凉之屋的第四个年头”,感觉上已不再那般荒凉。
The exception was the banking industry, which still faces deep troubles and a raft of regulations and capital standards.Some bankers have become heartily sick of being criticised, a mood that sometimes erupted in anger.When Lord Mandelson, a former UK minister, blamed the financial crisis on banks at one meeting, some in the audience hied.银行业是一个例外,该行业仍面临着深层次的麻烦,以及大批的监管法规和资本标准。一些银行家对于遭受批评已是极度厌烦,这种情绪有时会演变成愤怒爆发出来。当英国前内阁大臣曼德尔森勋爵(Lord Mandelson)在一次会议上将金融危机归咎于银行时,招致了在座一些银行家的嘘声。
Busine leaders also talked of nagging fears of an unpredictable new shock from the eurozone, the Middle East or China.A survey by PwC, the accountancy firm, found that busine confidence had fallen sharply over the past year.“Many companies are nervous,” said Dennis Nally, PwC chairman.商界领袖们还谈到了来自于欧元区、中东或是中国的无法预测的新冲击,由此引发的担忧令人倍感不安。会计师事务所普华永道(PwC)的一项调查显示,过去一年中,企业信心大幅下滑。该公司董事长戴瑞礼(Dennis Nally)指出,“许多公司都感到紧张不安。”
Chief executives and policymakers were worried by the jobs crisis, particularly among young people.There were several discuions on how, if poible, to make advanced economies generate more jobs at a time of anaemic growth – and income disparity and social inequality produced by technological change and globalisation.首席执行官和决策者们则对就业危机、尤其是青年人群的就业危机感到忧心忡忡。如果可能的话,怎样才能在增长乏力的情况下,让发达经济体创造出更多的就业岗位?围绕这一问题,与会者展开了多次讨论。同样列为讨论内容的还有,由于技术变革和全球化造成的贫富分化及社会不公问题。
Many companies streed their own operations were continuing to perform well – particularly when they have links to the boom in emerging markets.“When I went into seions on Europe I came out feeling depreed,” said the head of one US bank.“But if you listen to Brazilians or Indians, you feel completely different.”许多公司都强调,其自身业务继续保持着良好的势头——尤其是当业务涉及繁荣发展的新兴市场时。一家美国银行的负责人谈到,“当我听取欧洲的业绩汇报时,感觉十分沮丧。而听到巴西人或是印度人汇报时,感觉则完全不同。” This prompted a renewed push on trade.The US Chamber of Commerce tried to use the forum to table a transatlantic trade pact that would reduce tariffs on goods.“People know we need to create growth, so all of a sudden there seems to be a groundswell behind this,” Tom Donohue, president of the chamber, said.这为贸易提供了新的推动力。美国商会(US Chamber of Commerce)试图利用此次论坛,提出一项跨大西洋、旨在削减商品关税的贸易协定草案。“人们知道我们必需创造增长,于是突然之间,我们似乎得到了山呼海啸般的舆情支持,”美国商会主席汤姆?多诺霍(Tom Donohue)表示。
At the same time there was a wider recognition that the traditional Davos agenda focusing on the benefits of globalisation and trade had a social cost.While it has been good for highly educated and mobile executives, many of whom throng to the forum, the west’s unskilled workers have suffered.与此同时,人们还形成了一种更为广泛的认识:达沃斯的议事日程通常将重点放在全球化及贸易所带来的好处上,而这产生了一定的社会成本。虽然这有利于接受过良好教育、且来去自由的管理人士(他们当中的许多人都来到了达沃斯),但那些技能低下的西方工人却遭受了打击。
Multinational companies said they faced preure from investors and their employees to demonstrate a social purpose, rather than just maximising profits.“We can’t treat [corporate social responsibility] as separated from everything else – it is now core to what we do,” said Keith Weed, chief marketing officer of Unilever.跨国公司表示,它们面临着来自于投资者和员工的压力,要求公司彰显社会价值,而不仅仅是将利润最大化。“我们不能将企业社会责任与其他问题分离开来——如今它是企业运转的核心,”联合利华(Unilever)首席营销官基思?威德(Keith Weed)表示。
Not everyone agreed with a shift in approach.“Generally, companies are poor instruments of social policy and should stay away from that,” said Mr Banerji.“Good companies raise capital from markets, allocate it to projects and make profits along the way.If they did that well, there would be no problems.”并不是所有人都认同这种态度上的转变。“通常来说,企业是糟糕的社会政策工具,它们应该远离这一领域。”班纳吉说道,“优秀的企业是从市场获得资金,然后将资金配置到各个项目上,并从中赚取利润。如果它们把这些都做好了,就不会有问题。” The question is whether the economies of western countries will be stable and vibrant enough to encourage companies to do so – and to create jobs.问题在于,西方国家的经济是否具备足够的稳定性和活力,以刺激企业这样做——同时还要创造出就业机会。
George Soros, the philanthropist and former hedge fund manager, was gloomy about Europe’s chances, predicting a “vicious cycle” of deflation unle Germany acted to stimulate the eurozone.慈善家、曾担任对冲基金经理的乔治?索罗斯(George Soros)对欧洲的前景感到悲观。他预言,除非德国采取行动救助欧元区,否则欧元区将陷入通缩的“恶性循环”。
There were plenty of concerns in Davos about the economic outlook, yet, for many of those in busine, things could have been worse.The times are difficult, but not entirely bleak.在达沃斯,人们对于经济前景的担忧不胜枚举。然而,对与许多商界人士而言,事情原本可能会更糟。世事艰难,但前景并非一片黯淡。