《财富》全球大预言_财富全球500强
《财富》全球大预言由刀豆文库小编整理，希望给你工作、学习、生活带来方便，猜你可能喜欢“财富全球500强”。
《财富》2018年全球大预言
Facebook终于承认自己是一家媒体公司
如果某个东西看上去像鸭子，游起来象鸭子，叫声也象鸭子，那它可能是家科技公司，不对吗？Facebook坚称自己不是媒体公司，尽管证据正好相反：假新闻的冲击、员工在做编辑的工作，每年270亿美元的广告收入。期待它在2018年不要再拒绝被称作“媒体公司”，尽管这样做会让它面临更多的管制。
苹果打破纪录
今年11月，苹果（Apple）的iPhone X在数小时内卖断货（后来有人在eBay上以高达8,000美元一台的价格转售）。2018年，iPhone X有望帮助苹果突破它在2015年的手机销量纪录。
医疗应用数量太多，让人吃不消
目前，几乎有所疗法都有了应用。机器人疗法、糖尿病辅助治疗、罕见病支持群组„„无所不包。Mercom公司称，全球移动医疗企业的融资去年达到了13亿美元。这一领域在2018年将继续增长，预计到2022年，全球市场规模将超过1,000亿美元，尤其是在美国食品与药品管理局为移动医疗应用上市开大开方便之门的时候。
特拉维斯·卡兰尼克再度出山 美国人喜欢东山再起的故事，特兰维斯·卡兰尼克（Travis Kalanick）是美国企业家身上善与恶的缩影。他将在明年卷土重来。目前，他仍是Uber的董事，Uber的上市工作离不开他，他是大师级的融资人和Uber故事的讲述者。
比特币崩盘！比特币创新高！
对于数字加密货币比特币来说，2017年是标志性的一年，但记住我们的话：崩盘即将到来。比特币会暴跌至5,000美元左右。但是，在大跌之后，比特币价格将在2018年底突破20,000美元。我们会打这个赌，但不会在它上面押上一切。我们相信机构投资者会这么做，包括互助基金和银行，它们越来越重视比特币。
在线约会转向视频
随着更多的媒体公司进入视频业务，交友应用也在做同样的事。Hinge开始允许用户上传30秒电影，Bumble推出了视频聊天功能，就连古老的交友网站Match.com也增加了一个新的“故事”选项，可以编辑长达一分钟的真人视频。千禧一代已经在Instagram和Snapchat上面和陌生人分享他们的生活，他们将把视频做为常用的功能。
亚马逊继续吞噬世界
携收购全食超市（Whole Foods Market）之势，亚马逊（Amazon）还将继续加强它的实体存在，以加快送货。这可能意味着收购科尔士百货（Kohl’s）、欧迪办公（Office Depot）这样的大型零售连锁公司。
各城市将请求这三家公司入驻
当亚马逊披露，正在寻找另一个总部时，公司收到了很多媒体的正面报道和免税的承诺。更多的公司将在2018年效仿亚马逊。Facebook、英伟达（Nvidia）、阿里巴巴，你们有什么打算？
沃尔玛收购更多的时尚公司
为了对抗亚马逊，沃尔玛（Walmart）对网站进行了重新改造。它还将继续收购热门电商品牌。可能的交易包括眼镜生产商Warby Prker、服装品牌Everlane、Untuckit等知名品牌。这些竞购将帮助沃尔玛争取它觊觎已久的高收入客户。
7.明年需要了解的词汇
“松树岛”（Pine Island）和“恩怀兹”（Thwaites）：两座移动速度相对较快的南极洲冰山，体量巨大，一旦融化，将使海平面逐步上涨达4英寸，会淹没很多沿海城市。两座冰山上的冰块正在加速脱落。
“卡芬太尼”（Carfentanil）：一种用于麻醉大象的人工合成阿片类药，一般在亚洲的工厂生产，现在已经成为美国阿片类药物危机中的一种特别可怕和致命的因素。
“RNA”(核糖核酸）：各药企正在测试新的技术，通过改变RNA抑止基因表达，抗击致命性遗传疾病。新疗法最快于2018年产生。8.谁会有个好年景
商业和所有领域一样，都有成功者和失败者。看看谁会在2018年得意或失意。
蒸蒸日上
· Lyft：这家共乘服务新创企业将继续从Uber的丑闻和全力开拓商务旅行中受益，市占率将由2017年的21%增长至2018年30%以上。
· 中国的亿万富豪：中国的亿万富豪已经超过了美国。和中国的经济一样，他们的财富有望继续快速增长。
· 律师：针对阿片类药物制造商的官司潮肯定会让某些律师得利，特别是当药企支付数十亿美元和解金的时候。
· 宠物食用大麻：这是狗用的百忧解（Prozac，抗抑郁药物）。今年1月，合法的娱乐性大麻将在加利福尼亚出售，宠物食用大麻将是火爆的市场之一。
· 500美元瑜伽裤：大卖场确实正在垂死挣扎，但最高端的卖场（也就是有很多设计师品牌的A级卖场）仍然有着很好的增长前景。
· 花香四溢：忘了南瓜拿铁吧。全食公司说，2018年，消费者会疯狂爱上玫瑰和薰衣草的香气。
· 腰包：一般认为，戴腰包是为了实用或省事。但现在，腰包已经装点了卡戴珊家族几位女士的玉照。到2018年，它会更多出现在T型台上。江河日下
· Uber: 尽管公司在努力稳定形势，包括争取到了软银（SoftBank）的巨额注资，但Uber的市场仍然不断被小的竞争对手蚕食。
· 沃伦·巴菲特的财富净值：彭博社（Bloomberg）称，奥马哈先知的财富净值在今年秋天创下了815亿美元的新高。但由于热爱捐赠，巴菲特的财富明年难以进一步增长。
· 阿片类药特分销商和生产商：美国各地对这些企业的官司不断，更不要说越来越大的公众压力，它们将被迫重新考虑自己的作法。
· 销售大麻的小店：这个行业将快速合并，许多大麻业的励志大亨从此崭露头角。
· 100美元瑜伽裤：经常锻炼的人们意识到，穿着昂贵的衣服锻炼没有意义，露露柠檬（Lululemon）等休闲运动知名品牌的市场占有率将下滑。
· 送餐新创企业：靠风投支持的送餐新创企业的末日快要来临。问问Blue Apron的投资者就知道了。
· 播客：播客场已经达到饱和，调整即将降临。
9.我们在2017年的表现如何
完全准确：我们准确预测到，特朗普总统将收回清洁能源法，废除允许未登记的“美国梦追求者”在美国合法工作的规定。我们预测到，经济的稳定增长将使美联储在12个月内三次提高利率。至于娱乐业，我们预测到一个流媒体服务将赢得奥斯卡奖（亚马逊的《海连和曼彻斯特》拿下两项大奖）和超级碗收视率的下降。
大致不差：我们预测新款iPhone将出现大幅升级，包括采用OLED屏幕，销量也同步反弹。我们还警告，虚拟现实技术将很难赢得消费者的青睐。（如果你正戴着Oculus的头盔在看这篇文章。我们会表示歉意。）
完全错误：我们曾预测，特朗普政策的不确定性和估值高企将终结股票的长期牛市。我们的关于不确定性和估值的观点是对的，但预测错了投资者的情绪：标普自那以后上涨了18%。此外，如果你想让一个法国人笑出声来，只要对他说这几个字：“阿兰·朱佩总统”。（财富中文网）
以下编辑对本文有贡献：Ryan Bradley, Clay Dillow, Erika Fry, Leigh Gallagher, Robert Hackett, Matt Heimer, Tom Huddleston Jr., Beth Kowitt, Adam Lashinsky, Michal Lev-Ram, Sy Mukherjee, Andrew Nusca, Brian O’Keefe, Aaron Preman, Jeff John Roberts, Geoffrey Smith, Anne VanderMey, Phil Wahba, Valentina Zarya, Claire Zillman
本文的另一版本将登载于2017年12月1日出版的《财富》杂志。
译者：天逸 Facebook finally admits it’s a media company
If it looks like a duck, swims like a duck, and quacks like a duck, then it’s probably a tech company.Right? Facebook insists it’s not a media busine, despite evidence proving otherwise: fake news frustrations, editors as employees, $27 billion in annual advertising revenue.Next year, look for it to drop its resistance to the moniker, even though that could open it up to more regulation.Apple breaks records
In November, supplies of the Apple’s $999 iPhone X sold out in hours(only to turn up on eBay for up to $8,000).In 2018, expect the X to help Apple finally beat its 2015 phone sales record.The sheer number of health apps will cause you trauma There’s a health app for just about everything these days.Robo-therapy? Diabetes aistance? Rare disease support groups? Check, check, check.Global mobile health venture funding reached a record $1.3 billion last year, according to Mercom.The field will continue to boom in 2018(the total global market could exceed $100 billion by 2022), especially as the FDA moves to make it easier for mobile health apps to reach the market.Travis Kalanick resurfaces
Americans love second acts.Kalanick, the epitome for good and ill of the American entrepreneur, will get his this year.He’s still on the Uber board of directors, and IPO preparations will include Kalanick, a master fundraiser and spinner of the Uber narrative.Bitcoin crashes!Bitcoin hits all-time highs!
It’s been a banner year for the cryptocurrency Bitcoin, but mark our words: A crash is coming.Expect the price of one Bitcoin to tumble from its current heights above $6,500, to around $5,000.And then, after the fall, watch the price rebound to above $20,000 by the end of 2018.That’s our bet, but we wouldn’t put all our tokens on it.We’ll leave that to the institutional investors, like mutual funds and banks, who are taking cryptocurrency increasingly seriously.Online dating pivots to video
As more media companies make the leap into video, dating apps are doing the same.In 2017, Hinge began allowing users to upload 30-second films, Bumble launched a video-chat feature, and even good old Match.com is adding a new “Story” option, with minute-long, live-action compilations.Millennials, already primed by Instagram and Snapchat to share their lives with strangers, will embrace the features as their new normal.Amazon Keeps Eating the World
Hot on the heels of its acquisition of Whole Foods Market, Amazon will keep bolstering its physical presence to speed up delivery.That could mean buying more retail chains with big footprints like Kohl’s or Office Depot.These Three Companies Will Make Your City Beg to Host Them Amazon got plenty of positive pre(and offers of tax breaks)when it said it was looking for another HQ.More companies will follow its lead in 2018.Looking at you, Facebook, Nvidia, and Alibaba.Walmart snaps up more trendy companies
As Walmart revamps its website to counter Amazon, its acquisitions of small but hot online brands will continue.Expect to see deals for stalwarts like eyegla maker Warby Parker and clothiers Everlane and Untuckit.The bids will help Walmart reach the higher-income customer it so covets.7.Terms to Know
“Pine Island” & “Thwaites”: The two(relatively)fast-moving Antarctic glaciers are big enough that if melted, sea levels would rise roughly four feet over time, inundating many coastal cities.Both are shedding ice at accelerating rates.“Carfentanil”: An elephant tranquilizer and synthetic opioid, often manufactured in labs in Asia, that has become an especially scary and deadly force in America’s opioid crisis.“RNA”: Companies are testing new tech to silence gene expreion and combat deadly genetic diseases by manipulating RNA, DNA’s biological partner, with new treatments due out as soon as 2018.8.Who’s Going to Have a Good Year
In busine as in all things, there are winners and losers.Here’s what will be hot(or not)in 2018.Trending up
· Lyft.The ride-sharing startup will continue to benefit from Uber’s scandals(and a focus on busine travel), with market share speeding from 21% in early 2017 to more than 30% in 2018.· Chinese billionaires.There are already more billionaires in China than there are in the U.S.by some counts.And, like the Chinese economy, those fortunes look set to continue their outsize growth.· Lawyers.Someone has to benefit from the tide of lawsuits coming at opioid manufacturers—particularly if drugmakers pay out a multibillion-dollar settlement.· Edibles for pets.Pet edibles are the next doggy Prozac.It’s just one market that will get smoking hot when legal recreational weed goes on sale in California in January.· $500 yoga pants.Sure, malls are flailing, but the priciest among them(a.k.a.“Cla A” malls, featuring racks of designer labels)still have strong growth prospects.· Flower flavoring.Forget the pumpkin spice latte, Whole Foods says people will go nuts for flower flavors like rose and lavender in 2018.· The Fanny Pack.Call it normcore, or call it practical.But the fanny pack, already gracing the frames of several Kardashians, will hit more runways in 2018.Trending Down
· Uber.Despite stabilization efforts at the company(including a huge cash infusion from SoftBank), Uber will keep losing ground to its smaller rivals.· Warren Buffett’s net worth.Sure, the Oracle of Omaha’s net worth hit a hew high of $81.5 billion this fall, according to Bloomberg, but further growth next year will be thwarted by his tendency to give it away.· Opioid distributors and manufacturers.They’ll be forced to rethink their practices under mounting litigation filed by cities, counties, and states, not to mention growing public preure.· Mom-and-pop weed companies.Quickening industry consolidation will nip many aspiring cannabiz moguls in the bud.· $100 yoga pants.Lululemon and other stalwarts of the “athleisure” craze will lose market share as people who actually exercise realize there’s no point in working out in expensive clothes.· Food delivery startups.The day of reckoning is finally nigh for heavily VC-subsidized food delivery startups.(Just ask Blue Apron investors.)
· Podcasts.The airwaves have reached the saturation point for three guys and a Patreon account.A shakeout is coming.9.How We Did in 2017
On target: We predicted correctly that President Trump would put his stamp on the busine world by rolling back clean power regulations and rescinding rules that let undocumented “dreamers” work legally in the U.S.We foresaw that steady economic growth would prompt the Fed to hike interest rates three times in 12 months.And in entertainment, we predicted an Oscar for a streaming service(Amazon’s Manchester by the Sea won two)and a decline in Super Bowl TV ratings.In the ballpark: We predicted major upgrades for the new iPhone, including its OLED screen, in tandem with a big sales rebound.We also warned that VR technology would struggle to gain traction with consumers.(Our apologies if you’re reading this through an Oculus headset.)
Off the mark: We predicted that Trumpian policy uncertainty and sky-high share valuations would end the long bull market in stocks.We were right about the uncertainty and valuations, but wrong about investors’ moods: The S&P 500 is up 18% since then.Meanwhile, if you’d like to make a French person laugh, just utter these three words: “President Alain Juppé.”
Crystal Ball Contributors: Ryan Bradley, Clay Dillow, Erika Fry, Leigh Gallagher, Robert Hackett, Matt Heimer, Tom Huddleston Jr., Beth Kowitt, Adam Lashinsky, Michal Lev-Ram, Sy Mukherjee, Andrew Nusca, Brian O’Keefe, Aaron Preman, Jeff John Roberts, Geoffrey Smith, Anne VanderMey, Phil Wahba, Valentina Zarya, Claire Zillman
A version of this article appears in the Dec.1, 2017 iue of Fortune.
