economic election_titleelection

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一，Six factors are reasonable to forecast the outcomes of election.The party currently in power and whether it decides to run for reelection directly influence the competition constituents from which the winning party mostly will be.The incumbent party has ruled the country for four or five years.And we can always find a interesting phenomenon that is when the president is firstly elected, his supporting rate is relatively high or greatly overwhelms that of his opponents.But shortly after his taking over the government, his supporting rate usually will slump.Voters or people are difficult to satisfy.The incumbent president, party, and its policies are always what people talk about and dislike.And their decision to run for reelection will largely depend on their present supporting rate.If a incumbent party has been in power for a long time, we can aume that firstly, it has indeed performed well which may help it reelected.Secondly, voters and people love their leader very much perhaps because of his great policies, preferred style of leading, or even personality.And in some countries that may not so democratic, the long time in power will reinforce the leader or incumbent party’s rule.In some politically developed countries, the people or voters are likely to see some changes, so a long-term incumbent party may become not so popular.And as the time it in power increases, the risk of losing the next reelection will also go up.However, all depends on their performance.The growth in income and the price level are too main factors affecting the people’s life.When citizens’ income growing rate fails to catch up with price rising rate, the people may suffer from the inflation, which has negative impact on the reelection.In that case, the incumbent policies failure will provide the competitors advantages.In low inflation countries, the inflation rate is steady at 3%.The macro economy can enjoy the low inflation rate for the factories or enterprises can gain more profits.And accordingly, the growth rate of real income per person should be a little higher than or equal to 3%.If the incumbent party makes it, the whole country economy moves forward to a good direction which can be a strong support for the incumbent leader to win the reelection.二，As most people are rational, they will think both personally and nationally about the election.Voters can generally be divided into different parts according to different standards.In the election, voters’ value judgments which are jointly decided by their education, social environment, and family background etc.can strongly influence their decisions in voting.Some people may think more about something personal when pocketboot voters are mostly from the lower cla for their first emergent need is on the basis of security, such as food, shelters, and health care.Meanwhile, sociotropic voters who have received better education are more likely to have a overall view of economy.Facing those voters, the policies which can benefit the nation’s well-being are better.三，Election and economy can influence each other.The candidates running for the campaign will mainly focus on the topics of economy.The economic policies they contend are eential to guide the country’s economy in the next few years.The election outcomes will eventually be the economic policies outcomes.On the contrary, the winning party’s performance in the economy will also decide whether it can win the reelection for the next term.The most outstanding example is Franklin Delano Roosevelt who have save the United States from the Great Depreion and succeeded in winning the four presidential elections for more than twelve years.