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Europe The anti-European question For once, the European elections in May will matter, to both the EU and its members Nov 18th 2013 | BRUSSELS |From The World In 2014 print edition

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European elections are usually dull, lacking the drama of national politics or the immediacy of local ballots.Policymaking in the European Union is so complicated that the parliamentary balance makes only a marginal difference.Few people can name their MEPs, and the parliament shuttles at great expense between its twin homes of Bruels and Strasbourg with all the trappings of a travelling circus.It is hardly surprising, then, that turnout has fallen with every round since direct elections began in 1979(see chart).The contest in May 2014 will be different.The crisis of the euro zone matters to voters—be it in debtor states such as Greece, creditor states such as Finland or non-euro countries like Britain.Eurocrats are intruding deeply into the economies of the euro zone, raising profound questions about democracy.So the ballot will be an important test of faith in the European project.Related topics      Euro zone

European People's Party European Union Bruels

European Union politics

Europhiles have two nightmares: one is that the turnout will drop further(it was just 43% at the last election);the other is that there will be a strong backlash against the EU.Minority parties tend to do better in European elections because people feel freer to vote with the heart—or, as some put it, the boot.Populist, anti-immigrant and extreme parties of all stripes, often united only in their hatred of the EU, will make gains.The real question is how strong they will be.A fifth of MEPs? A quarter? Maybe a third? The Freedom Party of Geert Wilders in the Netherlands, the National Front of Marine Le Pen in France and the UK Independence Party led by Nigel Farage may top the ballots in their countries.The Finns Party and the Alternative for Germany will do well, too.People feel freer to vote with the heart —or, as some put it, the boot In Strasbourg and Bruels, radicals will seek not only to subvert the European system from within, but national mainstream parties from without.The disparate Eurosceptics have had little influence on EU legislation but they ably use the European aembly as a megaphone.So the Eurosceptics’ greatest influence will be indirect, through national politics.Insecure governments are more likely to resist EU integration, such as encouraging the free movement of workers, deepening the single market, liberalising external trade and sharing financial risk to stabilise the euro.The Schengen free-travel area is particularly vulnerable.Preure to call a referendum on Britain’s EU membership will grow.All this raises the stakes in the choice for the big jobs in Bruels after the election: the presidents of the European Commiion(the EU’s civil service)and the European Council(representing leaders), as well as the foreign-policy chief(called the high representative).Into the mix will go the commiioner for monetary affairs and, perhaps later, the president of the Eurogroup of finance ministers.The next secretary-general of NATO will also be part of the bargain.The Bruels name game Europhiles want the proce to be more overtly political.José Manuel Barroso, president of the commiion, will put forward proposals to change the EU treaties with the aim eventually of creating a “federation of nation-states”.The main European political “families”—the coalitions of national parties that dominate the parliament’s work—plan to take up his call to campaign around “presidential” candidates to succeed him.Mimicking national elections is meant to raise public interest, enhance the EU’s democratic credentials and shift power from national governments to supranational bodies.But this could lead to a bitter dispute between the parliament and governments over who should choose, and control, the head of the commiion(the treaty is ambiguous).And the field of candidates would narrow to Bruels insiders;sitting prime ministers may not give up their jobs for a risky European election.Martin Schulz, the pugnacious president of the European Parliament, is the favourite to win the nomination for the centre-left umbrella, the Party of European Socialists(PES).The centre-right European People’s Party(EPP)is likely to remain the biggest grouping, but is in a quandary.In 2009 it chose Mr Barroso as its champion(he was the incumbent).This time the EPP’s insiders are le appealing: Viviane Reding, the self-promoting justice commiioner, and Michel Barnier, the single-market commiioner.So the EPP-dominated European Council will doubtle seek to appoint one of its own: perhaps Donald Tusk of Poland, Enda Kenny of Ireland, Jyrki Katainen of Finland or Valdis Dombrovskis of Latvia.Among PES prime ministers they could choose Helle Thorning-Schmidt of Denmark or Enrico Letta of Italy.As with much else, the view of Germany’s chancellor, Angela Merkel, will be decisive.A prime minister might be persuaded to campaign openly, rather than behind closed doors, if he or she had the aurance of becoming president of the European Council in case of failure.The remaining jobs would then be settled through a complex, and often unedifying, game of political balance: between political families, north and south, older and newer member-states, and sex.If euro-zone figures get the two big presidencies, then the foreign-policy job could go to a non-euro easterner such as Radek Sikorski, the Polish foreign minister.Beyond this horse-trading, governments and political parties would make a good start by selecting a better crop of commiioners and MEPs than the current bunch of mediocrities.Anton La Guardia: European Union correspondent and Charlemagne columnist, The Economist

From The World In 2014 print edition