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Wynne Godley

Wynne Godley, British economist, died on May 13th, aged 83

May 27th 2010 | From The Economist print edition

A CERTAIN ambiguity marked Wynne Godley.Was he at heart an aesthete, happiest making music in beautiful buildings among works of art? Or was he more naturally one of the sophisters, economists and calculators whose rise marked, for Edmund Burke, the paing of the age of chivalry? Was he by temperament a dienter? Or just a typical scion of the British upper claes, an establishment man who played at being a rebel? Was he a determined peimist, who took some pleasure in his reputation as the Caandra of the Fens? Or a convivial, witty friend, who entertained with style and had a taste for gambling? Was he a shy violet, trembling before an audience? Or a controversialist who was hardly publicity-averse?

If the answer to each of these questions is at least partly yes, that may mean no more than that Mr Godley was a man of several talents, many interests and an intelligence to make good use of them.His first love was certainly music, for when he left Oxford, where he read politics, philosophy and economics, he went to the Paris Conservatoire and became a profeional oboist.Performing in public, though, filled him with terror, which led him to give up his job as principal oboe in the BBC Welsh Orchestra.He turned to economics instead.That, anyway, became his profeion.But his love of music never left him, and art remained a part of his life to the end, not least through his marriage to Kitty, the daughter of Sir Jacob Epstein.And though Mr Godley’s good looks and elongated figure might seem to have been tailor-made for El Greco, El Greco being unavailable, it was Epstein who took him as the model for a huge bronze statue of St Michael that hangs on the outside of Coventry Cathedral, with the devil vanquished at his feet.反正经济学成了戈德利的职业。但他对音乐的韦恩•戈德利 英国经济学家韦恩•戈德利于五月十三日辞世，终年83岁 源自《经济学人》印刷版，2010年5月27日 韦恩•戈利这个人的特点带有几分模棱两可。从本质上讲他是不是一个唯美主义者，置身于华美的厅堂上，徜徉于艺术珍品之中，摆弄音乐，陶醉无比？还是说，以天生秉性而言，他更应当被看成是一个辩论大师、经济学家又兼计算高手，当初此等人物的出现曾被埃德蒙•伯克认为标志了骑士时代的终结？他是不是一个从性格上就爱拂逆众见的异议者呢？还是说，他仍未脱英国上流阶级子弟之典型，以体制中人的身份，玩几把反叛的游戏？他真是一个坚定不移的悲观论者并且能从“芬斯地区的悲观预言师”这样的名头上得几分快乐吗？还是说，这位朋友爱交游喜风趣，招待客人讲究排场，还有赌博的雅兴？他是个在听众面前会紧张到发抖的“羞答答的紫罗兰”呢？还是一个好辩的主儿，动起嘴来几不忌惮抛头露面？如果对上述每一个问题的回答至少有一部分是“是”，则也许只是意味着——戈德利是一位有几份天资、多种爱好的男人，是一位有智慧对种种爱好善加利用的男人。他第一爱好无疑是音乐，因为当他离开他攻读政治、哲学和经济学的牛津大学后，他去了巴黎音乐学院，并成为一个专业的双簧管吹奏者。可是，由于他在公众场所表演充满紧张，致使他放弃了在英国BBC广播公司威尔士乐团首席双簧管演奏员的工作。他转向了经济学领域热爱始终不离不弃，及至人生终点，艺术仍然是他生活的一部分，尤其贯穿于他与爱泼斯坦（1880-1959, 生于美国的英国雕刻家——译者注)爵士之女基蒂的婚姻生活中。此外，尽管戈德利英俊的外貌和高高的身材似乎是为埃尔•格雷考（十七世纪西班牙画家、雕塑家——译者注）量身定做的模特儿，但格雷考无福消受。把戈德利作为圣迈克尔巨型青铜塑像模特儿的是爱泼斯坦，这尊塑像立于考文垂大教堂外面，其脚下是被征服的魔鬼。

In Keynes’s footsteps, up to a point

The devilish intricacies of economics Mr Godley seemed to overwhelm just as effortlely.After a spell in busine and a few years at the Treasury, he was enticed to King’s College, Cambridge, which 61 years earlier another economist-aesthete, John Maynard Keynes, had joined as a lecturer, writing(with his mother’s help)a letter of resignation from the civil service to his bo, a Sir Arthur Godley.This man was to become the first Lord Kilbracken and

Mr Godley became best known for his outspoken criticisms of Conservative economic policies.In the 1970s he took the view, which he recognised as dienting, that international trade should be, as he put it, “in some sense, managed” through import controls, adding unpersuasively that this was not really protectionism, since he did not want to reduce imports, merely the propensity to import;and protection should be “as minimally selective as poible”.More creditably, he correctly predicted that the boom generated by the Conservative government under Ted Heath in the 1970s would end in tears.He was also proved largely right in

These doleful prophecies, coupled with his very public loathing of monetarism, earned him no friends in government and the grant for his forecasting group at Cambridge was abruptly stopped in 1982.But he was hardly an outcast.Though not properly trained as an economist, he had proved himself as a macroeconomic modeller, and had been made a university profeor of applied economics.He had also become a director of the Royal Opera House.By 1992 he was back in favour at the Treasury, joining the panel of independent On the face of it, this was not a turbulent life.Mr Godley said he had a lonely childhood, involving a violent maiden aunt and the “chamber of horrors of a British prep school”.Later, in his 30s, he lived life “through an artificial self” in “a state of diociation”, which drove him into the clutches of a fiendish psychoanalyst.This in turn blighted his middle years.在某种程度上，戈德利是追随凯恩斯的足迹 eventually grandfather of Wynne.戈德利先生对于如魔幻般错综复杂的经济学，应对起来似乎毫不费力。在商界和财政部干了一些年头后，他神往起61年前另一个审美学家、经济学家约翰•梅纳德•凯恩斯（注1）曾经就读的剑桥国王学院来，他在向其老板老板阿瑟•戈德利男爵写（在其母亲的帮助下）了一封文员辞职信后，成为了该学院的一名讲师。那位男爵就是基尔布拉肯勋爵一世并最终成为韦恩•戈德利的祖父。foreseeing the severity of the receion that came later under Margaret Thatcher.戈德利因直言不讳地批评保守党的经济政策而变得愈加有名。在上世纪70年代，他发表观点（他意识到此观点不受欢迎）：国际贸易应该像他所指出的那样是通过进口管制实现的“某种意义上的管理”，他还缺乏说服力地补充这确实不是贸易保护主义，因为他并不主张减少进口，只是减少进口倾向；应当“尽可能最少地选择”贸易保护措施。更值得称道的是，他正确地预言到了上世纪七十年代希思治下的保守党政府激发的繁荣，将以泪雨告终。对后来撒切尔夫人时期严重经济衰退的预计，也被证明是大体上正确的。

forecasters known as the “six wise men”.上述令人沮丧的预测，连同他对货币主义的公开反感，使得戈德利在政府没有朋友，其剑桥预判小组的政府拨款也于1982年突然停止了。不过，戈德利不大可能成为被抛弃的人。尽管他没有像经济学家那样接受正规高等教育，但他却证明自己是一位宏观经济学缔造者，而且还是一位大学应用经济学教授。他也是皇家歌剧院的懂事。1992年，戈德利在一片赞赏中回到财政部，参加被称作“六智囊”的独立预测员小组。

单从表面上看，上述这一切算不上是混沌难驭的人生经历。戈德利说过，他有一个陷于粗暴未婚姑妈和“英国预科学校恐怖屋”之难的孤独童年。后来，在他30多岁期间，他过着“分裂状态”下“自我十足虚假”的生活，这种生活驱使他成为刁钻心理分析学家的掌中物。这种生活也相应地折磨着他的中年。

His background, though it might misleadingly be called privileged, was mixed up.The first Lord Kilbracken had been a protégé of a Liberal prime minister, Gladstone, but was a Conservative;and the second, Wynne’s father Hugh, also a Tory, had been madly in love with Violet Asquith, the daughter of another Liberal prime minister.Hugh separated from Wynne’s mother about the time he was born, and was impotent, anti-Semitic and alcoholic.Wynne’s mother paraded naked in front of him and would tell him, as a child, of the intense pleasure she got from sexual intercourse.But he reached the age of 17 not knowing that women had vaginas.He was supremely happy at Oxford, where his tutor was Isaiah Berlin, to whom he said he owed all his higher education.But, he wrote, “Nora *his stepmother] shot herself in the head with a shotgun;my father, his entire fortune squandered, died alone in a hospital where the nurses were unkind to him;my half-sister was committed to a high-security mental institution at Epsom;my mother had a bad stroke and lived out her last six years hemiplegic and helple, her mind altered.She told her nurses that they were ‘lower-cla scum’ and complained that I

Against a background like this, a little waywardne in the world of macroeconomics seems entirely forgivable.Whopper to go

Will Burger King be gobbled up by private equity?

SHARES in Burger King(BK)soared on

September 1st on reports that the fast-food company was talking to several private-equity firms interested in buying it.How much beef was behind these stories was unclear.But lately the company famous for the slogan “Have It Your Way” has certainly not been having it its own way.There may be arguments about whether BK or McDonald’s serves the best fries, but there is no doubt which is more popular with stockmarket虽然戈德利•韦恩的出生背景会让人误以为是特权阶层，但其实是模糊不清的。他的祖父基尔布拉肯一世虽曾是自由党首相格莱斯顿的门生，却是个保守派；而他的父亲基尔布拉肯二世休•戈德利也是一名保守党成员，疯狂爱上了另一位自由党首相的女儿维尔莉特•阿斯奎思。休•戈德利大约在韦恩出生后就与韦恩的母亲分居，是一个性欲低下者、反犹太者、嗜酒者。当韦恩还是一个孩子的时候，他妈妈在他面前展示她的裸体，并会告诉他她从性爱中获得的强烈快感。可是，成长至17岁的戈德利•韦恩先生尚不知女性是有阴道的。

was ‘marrying the daughter of a New York yid’.”在牛津大学，韦恩快乐无比，他的牛津大学导师是赛亚•伯林，他曾说过他所受的全部的高等教育都是从柏林那儿得来的。不过，他著述称：“继母诺拉用猎枪结束了自己的生命；我父亲花光家财，在一家受尽护士冷眼的医院里孤独离世；我同父异母的妹妹被送进埃普索姆一家管理严格的精神病院；我母亲严重中风，在偏瘫无助中度过生命的最后六年，并改变了观点。她告诉护士：‘他们是低等的贱人’，还抱怨我‘娶了犹太裔纽约人的女儿’”。

在这样的家庭背景下，在宏观经济学界中，戈德利•韦恩的些许任性似乎是完全可以得到宽恕的。至尊汉堡，打包带走

汉堡王是否会被私人股本吞并？

investors: the maker of the Big Mac has supersized its lead in the past two years.有报道披露，快餐企业汉堡王（BK）正在与数个有收购意向的私人股本接洽，9月1日，汉堡王的股值随之飙升。这些报道究竟有多少真材实料不得而知。汉堡王的著名口号是“我选我味”，但如今显然它身不由己，心中五味杂陈。汉堡王和麦当劳哪家薯条最好吃，食客们一直争论不休，但股票投资人更喜欢哪家股票，却一目了然：过去两年里，巨无霸麦当劳一直在扩大

自己的优势。

Receion has favoured McDonald’s over BK, whose share price has fallen by half since the economy was flame-grilled in the summer of 2008.Shares in McDonald’s have risen, reaching an all-time high in August.Same-store sales at BK

Why has McDonald’s been eating BK’s lunch? Among other things, BK has always had a higher proportion of sales to young men, who have been hit especially hard by the receion.McDonald’s, by contrast, has for several years wooed women and older people with relatively healthy salads and drinkable coffee.BK has struggled to follow suit.At the same time, it has had to contend with angry shareholders, as the rising cost of beef and other ingredients has clobbered its profits.BK may also have cannibalised its existing sales by offering BK is used to changes in ownership.It went from being part of Pillsbury, a food company, to Grand Metropolitan, a British conglomerate, then to Diageo, a drinks giant.In 2002 it was sold to a group of private-equity investors: TPG, Bain Capital and Goldman Sachs.They did a fair job, improving sales with better marketing.They also helped turn around the most troubled of the franchisees who operate most BK restaurants.In 2006 BK floated its shares again.Its boes may hope that going private once more will protect them from short-term stockmarket preures If BK does go private, it may be part of a trend in the private-equity industry—now that some of the bigger firms have rediscovered their appetite for deals—of gobbling up the companies they had taken public during the bubble years but which are now trading cheaply.TPG, Bain Capital and Goldman Sachs still own a sizeable stake in BK, despite listing it on the New York Stock Exchange in 2006.However, it seems that other private-equity firms are interested in buying it.If that happens, no doubt BK servers will appreciate the irony: the act of paing a company from one private-equity firm to another is known in the

have fallen for five succeive quarters.金融危机却更青睐汉堡王，自2008年经济低迷以来，其股票价格跌至原来的一半。而麦当劳的股票不跌反涨，在8月又创下了历史新高。汉堡王的同店销售额连续五个季度下跌。value meals that were a bit too irresistible.为何麦当劳在与汉堡王的竞争中占得先机？别的不谈，汉堡王的顾客更多的是年轻人，而年轻人受金融危机打击尤其严重。相对地，麦当劳近年来一直以相对健康的沙拉和可口的咖啡，吸引女性和中老年人。汉堡王一直难以模仿。与此同时，随着牛肉等原材料的成本上涨，利润一跌再跌，汉堡王又不得不去对付那些愤怒的股东。汉堡王的套餐太过诱人，可能也影响了其他产品的销量。

while they ponder how to beat McDonald’s.汉堡王此前多次易主，已经习以为常了。它曾是皮尔斯百利食品公司的一部分，后转入英国大都会集团，继而转投饮品巨头帝亚吉欧。2002年又被转手卖给一批私人股本投资者：德克萨斯太平洋集团（TPG），贝恩资本和高盛。他们经营良好，利用优秀市场策略增加了销售。大部分汉堡王餐厅的运营商当时经营不善，他们还助其扭亏为盈。2006年汉堡王再度上市。其老板可能希望再度私有化以规避短期股市压力，为其争取时间定策击败麦当劳。

busine as “flipping”.私人股本行业——如今一些大公司重新对收购有了兴趣——吞并那些他们在经济泡沫时代卖掉，现在十分廉价的公司，俨然已成一股大潮，如果汉堡王真的私有化，就将融入这股大潮之中。德克萨斯太平洋集团（TPG），贝恩资本和高盛虽然2006年在纽约证券交易所已经兜售了汉堡王，但他们仍握有可观的股份。然而，其他私人股本公司似乎也有意收购。要是真被他们收购，无疑汉堡王的服务生都能领会其中的讽刺：在私人股本公司中被倒卖，在做汉堡这行叫“翻面”。

Another chance for Alfa

Alfa Romeo’s cars have not always lived up to its stellar brand.That is changing

IN 1995 Alfa Romeo ignominiously pulled out of America, having managed to sell only 400 cars there that year.Yet this month the sporting Italian marque, which is celebrating its centenary, was the star of the annual Pebble Beach Concours d’Elegance in California, a show for claic and concept cars.Alfa brought over seven cars from its museum in Milan, but none of its current offerings.It is testimony to the enduring power of a brand that has a wonderful history but which for many years has over-promised and under-delivered.Last year even Sergio Marchionne, the bo of Fiat, which owns Alfa, seemed to be running out of patience.Mr Marchionne had set Alfa a target to reach sales of 300,000 cars a year by 2010, but in 2009 it sold barely 100,000.In December he ordered a review of Alfa’s operations, which according to Max Warburton of Bernstein Research were losing up to $575m a year.The choice was to stem the loes by freezing new product investment after the launch this summer of the Giulietta hatchback, or to make a final attempt to restore Alfa’s fortunes, in part by taking advantage of Fiat’s control of Chrysler to re-establish Alfa in America.There were even rumours that Mr Marchionne might sell Alfa to Volkswagen, the industry’s most insatiable collector of brands.There is little doubt that Ferdinand Piëch, VW’s chairman, covets it.This month Car magazine revealed that a small project team at VW’s design studio in Potsdam had been ordered to create a phantom Alfa line-up.The theory is that Mr Piëch

罗密欧的救赎

作为豪华名牌，阿尔法·罗密欧一直很水。如今这正在改变。

There are signs, however, that this may be changing.1995年，阿尔法·罗密欧在美国只卖出了400辆车，当年便耻辱地撤出了美国。然而本月，在其百年大庆之际，在加州的Pebble Beach Concours d’Elegance古董车和概念车展会上，这个意大利跑车品牌大放异彩。阿尔法公司从其米兰的博物馆带来了七款车，但没有一款是正在销售的。这是历史悠久的老牌汽车实力的证明，虽然多年来每每呼之欲出，却总是令人失望。但是，它隐然已经有了复兴的迹象。

就在去年，甚至阿尔法的母公司菲亚特的老板，塞尔吉奥·马尔奇奥尼似乎都对它失去了耐心。马尔奇奥尼为阿尔法公司设定了2010年以前年销售30万辆的目标，但2009年它只卖出区区10万辆。12月他让伯恩斯坦研究公司对阿尔法公司的运营进行调查，其研究员马克思·沃伯顿表示，阿尔法年损失高达5.75亿美元。

would like to substitute Alfa for VW’s le charismatic Seat brand.有两种选择，一是在今年夏天发布Giulietta掀背车后，不再投资新产品以制止损失，二是孤注一掷，重塑阿尔法的辉煌，这就需要利用菲亚特控制的克莱斯勒，重新打入美国市场。甚至有传言说，马尔奇奥尼有意将阿尔法卖给大众汽车，后者是业内欲壑难填的收购狂。无疑，大众主席费迪南·皮耶觊觎阿尔法。本月的《汽车》杂志爆料，位于波茨坦的大众设计工作室里，一个项目小队被要求做出一套虚拟的阿尔法阵容。据推测，皮耶想用阿尔法替换大众旗下没什么吸引力的西亚特品牌。

Although Mr Marchionne did not reveal the full extent of his plans for Alfa(and the rest of the Fiat Group)until April, a straw in the wind was the appointment in January of Harald Wester, a German engineer, to run the unit.Mr Wester was already the bo of two other zippy Fiat brands, Abarth and Maserati, and was the group’s chief technical officer.One of Mr Marchionne’s best managers, Mr Wester was not being given the job to slim Alfa down or to Far from it.Alfa’s previous record year was in 2001, when it produced 213,000 cars, but the ambitious target set for Mr Wester is to sell half a million Alfas a year by 2014.Of these, 85,000 a year are expected to be in America, where Alfa will return by 2012.Mr Wester says that there are now “the right conditions, the right products and the right synergies to get there”.For his part, Mr Marchionne insists that he has “a strong and unequivocal commitment to the development of Alfa Romeo”

Next year, Alfa will launch the Giulia, a replacement for the handsome but not quite good enough 159 saloon, that will lead the charge in America.It will quickly follow it with a small croover and a larger SUV.Chrysler will provide both a manufacturing base in America and a Mr Wester is well aware that for all the affection Alfa still retains among car enthusiasts the plan will flop if the products are wrong.The signs are encouraging.Alfa’s MiTo, which competes against BMW’s Mini, has sold quite well since its launch last year.But the specialist magazines have given it a mixed reception, praising its styling and high-tech engines while criticising early cars for their choppy ride.The new Giulietta, a rival to Ford’s Focus and VW’s Golf that went on sale in Europe in May, is being hailed as not merely the most convincing With Fiat due to demerge its car and industrial businees in December, the focus on Alfa will be all the more intense, especially with the Fiat brand beating expectations(mainly thanks to strong sales of light commercial vehicles in Europe and continued succe in Brazil).Even Chrysler is responding to Mr Marchionne’s medicine and is in

flog it to VW.尽管马尔奇奥尼直到4月才把对阿尔法（以及菲亚特集团的其他品牌）的计划和盘托出，但早在1月从任命德国工程师哈拉尔德·韦斯特尔执掌这个部门，就已经可以窥斑见豹了。韦斯特尔已经是菲亚特其他两个优秀品牌，阿巴特和玛莎拉蒂的主管，而且是集团的首席技术官。韦斯特尔是马尔奇奥尼最优秀的经理人之一，若是要削减阿尔法经费或者卖给大众，根本不劳他出马。

and that he is “determined to transform it into a full premium brand”.恰恰相反。阿尔法的销售记录是在2001年创下的，当年生产销售了21.3万辆车，但野心勃勃的韦斯特尔设下了2014年前年销售50万辆的目标。其中，预计有8.5万辆在美国销售，阿尔法将在2012年以前重回美国。韦斯特尔说，如今“回美国是天时，地利，人和”。至于马尔奇奥尼，他坚持说他“坚定不移地致力于阿尔法·罗密欧的发展”并且“决心使它跻身豪华车品牌的行列”。

powerful distribution network.明年，阿尔法将推出Giulia，取代华而不实的159中型轿车，成为美国市场的主力。继而将推出一款酷越（Croover）车型和一款大型SUV。克莱斯勒既是大规模生产基地，也是强有力的销售网络。

mainstream Alfa for a long time, but one of the best cars in a fiercely competitive cla.韦斯特尔清楚地知道，虽然阿尔法仍然深受车迷厚爱，但产品上的失误仍会使其一败涂地。目前势头良好。在宝马Mini的竞争下，阿尔法的MiTo自去年发布以来仍有不俗的销量。但专业杂志对它毁誉参半，赞誉其设计和高科技引擎的同时，批评其早期产品行驶颠簸。与福特福克斯和大众高尔夫同一车型的新款Giulietta去年5月在欧洲销售，不仅长期被誉为令人信服的阿尔法主流产品，还被评为这个竞争激烈的车型中的佼佼者。much better financial shape than seemed poible a year ago.菲亚特将在12月将其汽车和工业产业分成子公司，届时，销量超越预期的阿尔法（主要归功于轻型商用车在欧洲的强势，以及在巴西的经久不衰）将更加引人瞩目。在马尔奇奥尼的改革下，就连克莱斯勒都有所起色，它如今的经济状况在去年看来简直不可想象。

The complacency and insularity that condemned too many Alfas of the past 25 years to mediocrity appears to have been blown away;and such is the lingering glamour of the Alfa Romeo name that even rivals wish it well.But Mr Wester has been given a mountain to climb and he has only just left base camp.Should he fail, there is every chance that Mr Piëch will be there to pick up the pieces.25年来，令阿尔法一蹶不振的那份夜郎自大，如今已经无迹可寻；阿尔法·罗密欧这个浪漫的名字余威犹在，连它的对手也希望它能好起来。但欲图极顶的韦斯特尔才刚刚从大本营出发。如果他失败了，守株待兔的皮耶一定会乐于出手的。