踮着脚进入变得便宜的中国股市_在中国股市的股市心经

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踮着脚进入变得便宜的中国股市

华尔街日报 顾蔚

2013/05/10 07:10:48

中国家庭拥有的砖头太多而股票不多。中国股市现在的估值接近历史低位，而房价在多年上涨后仍在继续攀升，可能是时候开始把资金从房市向股市转移了。

普通投资者常犯的错误是，追捧那些在过去表现好的资产。根据咨询公司莱坊国际的数据，2008年到2012年, 中国房地产市场是全球房地产市场中表现最好的。

而中国很多股市投资者却输了钱，所以情绪冷淡，股价低迷。根据中国央行的“中国家庭金融调查报告”，投资股市的家庭中只有22%的赚了钱，56%的赔了钱，还有22%的不赔不赚。

最棒的投资者是那些怀疑自己的决定，并愿意倾听怀疑的人；最糟糕的投资者是那些在一个上升的市场里赚了钱，并把此归功于自己超常判断力的人。在上周末伯克希尔•哈撒韦公司的年会上，巴菲特请来一位做空他公司的对冲基金经理来质问自己。中国投资者也应该这么做。

房价不可能永远上升，北京方面也试图遏制房价的上涨。根据中国央行的报告，中国人的住房自有率已经达到85%。实际上，19%的城 1

镇家庭已拥有超过一套房屋。

一系列的上上下下之后，中国股市又回到了10年前的水平。根据大和证券的数据，追踪一篮子在大陆和香港上市的中国企业的MSCI中国指数，现在的估值是企业未来12个月盈利的8.8倍。这在亚洲（不包括日本）是第二便宜的，只比韩国略高一点。菲律宾和印度尼西亚股市的估值相当于中国的两倍。

中国股市的估值和过去比也算便宜，相对于历史平均市盈率有27%的折价。而印度尼西亚和菲律宾的股市相对于其历史平均市盈率有40%以上的溢价。考虑到中国的经济已经启稳，这么高的折价看上去有些过大了。

大和证券亚洲经济学家孙明春表示，不管按照什么标准，中国经济增长速度都是全世界最高的之一，但股市的估值却是全世界最便宜的之

一。现在是反潮流、更乐观地看待中国的时候。

中国的流动性还有改善的空间。首先，有外面来的钱。专门管理挪威政府退休基金的挪威央行投资管理机构（Norges Bank Investment Management）表示，想要申请更多的配额投资中国股票，因为其10亿美元的份额已经用完了。NBIM 想要继续减少在欧洲的投资，转投中国这样的新兴市场。

其次，很多中国国内的钱还没有进来。根据中国央行的报告，中国家庭58%的金融资产是银行储蓄，18%是现金，15%是股票，还有4%在基金里。

据上海的研究公司Z-Ben Advisors的数据，中国国内77家基金公司管理着大约2.7万亿人民币的资产，相当于中国经济总量的5%。而据Strategic Insight的数据，美国共同基金行业一共有15万亿美元的资产，相当于美国GDP的规模。的确，中国股票缺乏一个强有力的上涨催化剂。像2009年四万亿经济刺激计划那样的强心针几乎没有可能。随着中国股市重新启动IPO，也会带来更多的股票供给，这也会给股价带来压力。但考虑到估值现在正处在历史低位，投资者应该考虑一下，如果大规模的资金调转真的发生，如何聪明地进入市场。

与其在中国2400家上市公司中寻找赢家，普通投资者不如投资基金。因为中国股市散户很多，所以基金常常有优势。一个选择是在交易所交易的封闭式基金。和开放式基金不同的是，它们发行的基金单位是一定的，并在交易所交易。它们现在的价格相对于其资产净值有2%到20%的折价，其中不少会在未来一两年内封转开，等到这些基金可以赎回，这个价差就会消失。那些投资2014年到期的封闭式基金的人，就算股指再跌5%，也不会亏钱。这种对下行风险的保护，对于想要踮着脚重新进入中国股市的投资者来说是有吸引力的。

（本文作者顾蔚是《华尔街日报》中国财富和奢侈品编辑。她针对中国高净值人士写的投资和消费专栏，于每周五在报纸及网络版以中英文双语同步发表。2013年加入《华尔街日报》之前，顾蔚在路透工作十年，包括在香港用中英文写有关中国经济和金融的专栏，和在纽约从事美国高科技公司和中国有关报道。顾蔚1998年在《第一财经》电视开始记者和编辑生涯。她是美国特许金融分析师，拥有纽约大学经济新闻硕士学位。欢迎读者发送邮件至wei.gu@wsj.com或在评论栏中发表评论和建议，也可以在新浪微博上(顾蔚WeiGu)追踪她。）（本文版权归道琼斯公司所有，未经许可不得翻译或转载。）

Why Chinese Stocks Are Alluring

WEI GU

A typical Chinese family owns too many bricks and not enough stocks.With Chinese stocks looking cheap compared with their history, and as property prices continue their years-long surge, now might be a good time to make a switch.A common investing mistake is being overweight in aets that have done well recently.China was the world's top-performing real-estate market from 2008 to 2012, according to consultancy Knight Frank.Many stock-market investors, meanwhile, have suffered big loes, so it isn't surprising that sentiment and valuations are low.Only 22% of families who have invested in stocks have made a profit overall, while 56% have lost money and 22% have broken even, according to a 2012 household-finance survey by the People's Bank of China.The best investors are the ones who question their own decisions and listen to skeptics.The worst credit their own brilliance for gains made in a rising market.At Berkshire Hathaway's annual meeting last weekend, Chairman Warren Buffett invited a hedge-fund manager who is betting against Berkshire stock to ask him questions.Chinese investors

need to do the same with their own holdings.Property prices can't rise forever;Beijing is trying hard to curb price appreciation and Chinese home ownership is already among the highest in the world.As many as 85% of urban Chinese families own property, according to the People's Bank of China report.Almost 19% of urban families already own more than one home.Meanwhile, after a series of big ups and downs, China's stock market, as measured by the Shanghai Composite Index, is trading right where it was about a decade ago.The MSCI China Index, which tracks a basket of Chinese companies listed in mainland China and Hong Kong, is trading at 8.8 times expected earnings for the next 12 months, according to brokerage Daiwa Securities.Among Asian markets excluding Japan, only South Korea trades at a cheaper multiple.Markets in the Philippines and Indonesia are twice as expensive by that measure.Chinese stocks are cheap compared with their history, too.They are trading at a 27% discount to their historical average price-to-earnings ratio.By comparison, stocks in Indonesia and the Philippines are both trading at premiums of more than 40% compared with their historical averages.China's steep discount looks exceive considering economic growth has remained solid.'By any standard, China's GDP growth is still among the highest in the world, but stock valuations are among the cheapest in the region,' said Mingchun Sun, Asia economist for Daiwa Securities.'Now is a good time to go against the crowd and take a more positive stance on China.'

Liquidity has room for improvement.First, there is foreign money.Overseas investors would like to increase their stock investments in China.For example, Norges Bank Investment Management, which manages the Norwegian Government Pension Fund, said it intends to apply for a larger quota to invest in Chinese stocks, after investing its current quota of $1 billion.The investment manager wants to further shift positions from European aets to emerging markets such as China.Second, a lot of domestic money is still sitting on the sidelines.Chinese families put as much 58% of financial aets in bank deposits, followed by 18% in cash at home, 15% in stocks, and 4% in funds, according to the PBOC report.The country's 77 mutual-fund companies have only $435 billion of aets under management, which equals about 5% of China's gro domestic product, according to Shanghai-based research firm Z-Ben Advisors.The U.S.mutual-fund industry has about $15 trillion in aets, roughly the size of the country's GDP, according to Strategic Insight.True, the Chinese stock market lacks a strong catalyst.Another big liquidity injection like

the $600 billion government stimulus in 2009 looks unlikely.An expected reopening of the initial-public-offering floodgate will increase the supply of shares, potentially pushing down prices.Still, with valuations at current low levels, investors should think of smart ways to get into the market.Instead of trying to pick winners among the 2,400 publicly traded companies, average investors are better off going with funds.Mom-and-pop investors play a big role in China, so profeionally managed funds can often outperform the market.One option is exchange-listed closed-end funds, which currently trade at prices that are 2% to 20% lower than the net aet values of their holdings.Unlike open-ended mutual funds, closed-end funds iue a fixed number of shares in an offering that then trade like stocks.Most of the Chinese closed-end funds are set to become open-ended in the next year or two, at which time the discounts should disappear.Those who invest in the funds that will become open-ended in 2014 shouldn't lose any money even if the market falls another 5% in the next year, based on the current discounts.That cushion looks attractive for investors who want to tiptoe back into Chinese equities.