欧债危机中英文讲稿_欧债危机中英对照
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欧债的开始
December 2009 the three largest credit rating companies downgraded Greece's sovereign rating, then the Greek debt crisis intensified, but the financial community that the Greek economy is small, the debt crisis will not expand.● December 8, 2009 Fitch credit rating of Greece lowered from A-to BBB +, outlook negative.● December 15, 2009 the Greek government bonds sold 2 billion euros.December 16, 2009 Standard & Poor's will be Greece's long-term sovereign credit rating from “A-” down to “BBB +”.● December 22, 2009 Moody's December 22, 2009 announced that it would cut Greece's sovereign rating from A1 to A2, the rating outlook to negative 欧债的发展
Other European countries are also in crisis, including Belgium, the outside world that the more stable countries, and strong economic strength of the euro area, Spain, the high budget deficits are forecast the next three years, Greece has been the protagonist of non-crisis, the European Union have been debt-crisis.● January 11, 2010 Moody's warned Portugal failure to take effective measures to control the deficit will cut the national debt credit rating.● February 4, 2010 the Spanish Ministry of Finance pointed out that Spain in 2010 will account for fear of the overall public budget deficit of 9.8% of GDP.● February 5, 2010 debt crisis sparked fears of 6% of Spain's stock market plunge the day, record the largest decline in 15 months.欧债的升级
Greek Finance Minister said that Greece is required before May 19 of about 90 billion euros to weather the crisis.EU finance ministers reached an 10 am up to 750 billion euros of the total stabilization mechanism to prevent the crisis from spreading.● April 23, 2010 Greece formally applied to the EU and IMF aistance
● May 3, 2010 German cabinet approved € 22.4 billion aid plan ● 10 May the EU approved 750 billion euros Greek aid program, IMF may provide 250 billion euros to aid Greece
欧债危机的影响
Faced by countries such as Greece's sovereign debt problems, the euro exchange rate from December 2009 onwards all the way down, to April 27, 2010, the euro-dollar exchange rate closed at its lowest point over the past year, compared with early December 2009 fell by 12.8 %.If you can not effectively solve the debt problems of countries such as Greece, difficult to restore market confidence, would further suppre the euro exchange rate.The international community generally believes that the euro has been the debt problems of Greece and other countries drag from the most difficult period since the birth.Greece, Spain, Portugal and other countries to take the radical austerity, might make the economy back into receion.According to the latest IMF forecast, in 2010, Greece, Spain, Ireland and Portugal, the four countries real GDP growth rate of-2%,-0.4%,-1.5% and 0.3%, the worst performance in the euro area member countries.At present, although concentrated in the Greek sovereign debt of a country, but there continues to spread the risk to other euro area countries, Standard & Poor's on April 27, 28, a series of lower Greece, Portugal and Spain's sovereign credit rating is fueling such a panic.As the single currency area, economic imbalances within the euro area monetary policy to the implementation of a uniform manufacturing obstacles, economic recovery in the euro area member states of step with the European Central Bank relaxed monetary policy in the implementation of “exit” strategy is difficult to determine a suitable for all members of the timetable.The euro-zone countries, Greece and other debt problems exposed, dragged down the pace of economic recovery in the euro area, the ECB may also have a longer period of time the benchmark interest rate at historic lows.Since its launch the euro, with strong economic strength, has quickly become the second largest after the U.S.dollar the international currency, the euro financial crisis provides an opportunity to enhance its international status.But the debt problems of Greece and other countries undermined confidence in the euro market, if not effectively addreed as soon as poible, will seriously affect the international status of the euro and the overall stability of the euro area, euro area monetary union model will also be severely tested.IMF on April 20 and 21, has released “Global Financial Stability Report” and “World Economic Outlook”, the developed countries have expreed concerns about sovereign debt risk.The IMF “World Economic Outlook report,” said the short term, the main risk is that if left unchecked, the Greek sovereign debt market liquidity and solvency concerns, may evolve into a fully sovereign debt crisis, and the formation of a kinds of spreading.Solution ● The first pillar: Bank capital increase
Banks need additional capital, so that it could withstand the lo and subsequent bankruptcy absorbing Greek influence.In contrast, bank capital increase is “three pillars” in the easier one.The key is to determine the bank's core tier one capital ratio.● The second pillar: Relief Fund
On how to locate EFSF function divergence.France, the European Union and the United States can hope EFSF additional capital in the bank in the proce, play a more central and active role.Germany believes that, should act as lender of last resort to EFSF role only in the bank itself and the national government can not provide the neceary support to problem banks, only need to come forward EFSF.In addition to the planned funding for the bank and the second round of the Greek aid measures but also to prevent the debt crisis turned into a banking crisis.● The third pillar: the Greek debt restructuring
Restructuring of the Greek debt hinges on Greek government bonds held by creditors appropriate by design, so that Greece's debt sustainability, and economic growth through fiscal restraint and to make up.In the July 21 bailout program, the bank holding the bond reduction of 21%, the nominal value equivalent to the Greek debt decreased by 5%.But now is not enough.France initially objected to significantly reduce the total debt of Greece, because France is the largest of the Greek debt holders.Germany recommends a substantial reduction of the Greek debt.对中国的影响： The EU is China's largest export market.The current stage of the European crisis will have asignificant impact on China's export trade and there are signs that this is already happening.When the financial crisis first struck the US and Europe in 2008, China's exports to the EUremained unaffected.It was only in 2009 that exports to the EU suffered a large fall.This wasfollowed by a strong recovery in 2010, which brought exports to the EU back up close to theirpre-crisis levels.It appeared that the EU and Chinese exports there had returned to normal.This has turned out to be an illusion.The failure of the EU to deal with the problems it facedmerely delayed the day of reckoning.This strong growth in imports from China was sustained in the first few months of this year, butmore recently it has slowed sharply.According to EU statistics, imports from China grew by only8.4 percent in May.This figure hides sharp differences acro the member states of the EU.China's exports toseveral EU countries have experienced falls in recent months.Imports from China by Portugalfell 11.6 percent in May.In March and April imports by Spain fell, although they managed asmall increase in May.The countries worst hit by the crisis are relatively small importers ofChinese goods.Of greater significance is the UK, one of the biggest markets for China, whoseimports also went into a decline in May.It is not only the crisis-hit countries where import growth has been weakening.Imports fromChina by Denmark also fell in May.Import growth in France and the Netherlands has alsoslowed sharply.Even more significant is that the growth in imports by Germany has alsodecelerated rapidly, and in March experienced a decline for the first time since January 2010,although this was followed by two months of weak growth.While some countries in Europe, like Italy, have maintained strong import growth from China,this may not last much longer and the signs are multiplying that China's exports to the EU arefacing severe difficulties.China's exports to the EU are highly cyclical.There is normally atrough in monthly exports early in the year, followed by a steady rise to a peak in aboutOctober.The main exporting season of 2011 is still ahead of us, but the most recent signs arenot positive, especially in those countries in severe economic difficulties.Even if it manages to finally adopt policies to solve the crisis, many markets in the EU will notreturn to strong growth any time soon.The policies required to solve the crisis will imposesevere economic hardship over a number of years.This will have a long-term effect on China'sexports to the EU.Chinese exporters may have to face the prospect that unlike in 2008, there may be no quickreturn to strong growth acro many markets in the EU.The author is a senior researcher with Bruels Institute of Contemporary China Studies.翻译：
影响方面：对照上文的影响
受希腊等国家面临的主权债务问题影响，欧元汇率从2009年12月起一路下跌，至2010年4月27日，欧元兑美元汇率报收一年来的最低点，较2009年12月初下跌了12.8％。如果不能够有效解决希腊等国家的债务问题，市场信心难以恢复，会进一步打压欧元汇率。国际社会普遍认为，欧元已经被希腊等国的债务问题拖入自诞生以来的最困难时期。
希腊、西班牙、葡萄牙等国采取的激进财政紧缩政策，可能使其经济重新陷入衰退。根据IMF最新预估，2010年，希腊、西班牙、爱尔兰和葡萄牙四国实际GDP增长率为-2％、-0.4％、-1.5％和0.3％，是欧元区成员国中表现最差的几个国家。目前，尽管主权债务问题集中在希腊一国，但也存在继续扩散至其他欧元区国家的风险，标普公司在4月27日、28日接连降低希腊、葡萄牙和西班牙的主权信用评级更是助长了这种恐慌。
作为单一货币区，欧元区内部经济失衡给执行统一货币政策制造了障碍，欧元区各成员国经济复苏的步调不一致，使欧央行在实施宽松货币政策“退出”策略时很难确定一份适合所有成员的时间表。而希腊和其他一些欧元区国家暴露出来的债务问题，拖累了欧元区经济复苏的步伐，也使欧洲央行可能不得不在更长的时间内把基准利率维持在历史低点。
欧元自启动以来，凭借雄厚的经济实力，已迅速成为仅次于美元的第二大国际货币，金融危机为欧元提升国际地位提供了机遇。但希腊等国的债务问题损害了市场对欧元的信心，如果不能够尽快有效解决，将严重影响欧元的国际地位和欧元区的整体稳定性，欧元区货币联盟模式也将经受严峻考验。
IMF在4月20日和21日先后发布的《全球金融稳定报告》和《世界经济展望报告》中，都表达了对发达国家主权债务风险的担忧。IMF在《世界经济展望报告》中说，短期内的主要风险是，如果不加控制，市场对希腊主权债券流动性和偿还能力的担忧，可能会演变成一次充分的主权债务危机，并形成某种蔓延之势。
对中国的影响：
欧盟是中国最大的出口市场。现阶段欧洲危机对中国的出口贸易将有一个显着的影响，有迹象表明，这已经发生了。
当金融危机袭击美国和欧洲在2008年，中国对欧盟出口仍然不受影响。仅在2009年对欧盟出口遭遇了大幅下降。其次是在2010年的强劲复苏带来出口到欧盟的备份接近危机前的水平。它出现，欧盟和中国的出口已经恢复正常。这已横空出世，以是一个错觉。欧盟未能处理它所面临的问题，只不过是推迟了清算的日子。这种从中国进口的强劲增长，在今年的前几个月持续，但最近已大幅放缓。据，以欧盟统计数据，从中国进口的同比增长由5月份的只有8.4％的在。这个数字隐藏了欧盟成员国之间的尖锐分歧。在最近几个月，中国出口到欧盟几个国家都经历过的跌倒。葡萄牙从中国进口下降11.6％，5月。在3月和4月进口西班牙下跌，虽然他们管理5月小幅增加。受危机打击最严重的国家，中国商品进口都比较小。更大的意义在于英国，中国最大的市场之一，其进口也进入5月下降。它不仅是遭受危机打击的国家进口增长已经减弱。丹麦从中国进口也下跌，5月。在法国和荷兰的进口增速也大幅放缓。更重要的是，由德国进口的增长也迅速减速，并于3月经历了2010年1月以来的首次下降，虽然这是后两个月增长乏力。虽然一些国家在欧洲的，像意大利一样，一直保持着强劲的进口的增长来自中国的，这可能不会持续更长的时间以及标牌均乘以，中国的出口到欧盟的正在面临着严峻的的困难。中国出口到欧盟的高度周期性。通常每月出口在年初，随后稳步上升到了顶峰，10月左右的低谷。2011年主要出口季节仍是摆在我们面前，但最近期的迹象并不乐观，尤其是在这些国家严重的经济困难。
即使管理最终通过政策来解决危机，许多在欧盟市场将不会恢复强劲增长的任何时间很快。解决危机所需的政策，将造成严重的经济困难，过了数年。这将对中国出口到欧盟的长期影响。
中国出口商可能要面对的，不像在2008年的前景，有可能是没有回报快许多在欧盟市场的强劲增长。
欧债危机演变与中国的对策欧洲的主权债务危机延续至令已有整整两年半的时间，至今没有结束。欧洲要想从危机中脱身，似乎也遥遥无期。欧债危机产生的原因是什么?这场危机对欧盟......
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